情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(4) :31-38,30.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.04.006

金融危机预警情报的失灵与治理

Failure and Governance of Financial Crisis Early Warning Intelligence

魏晨 赵冰峰 吴晨生 王冰琪
情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(4) :31-38,30.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.04.006

金融危机预警情报的失灵与治理

Failure and Governance of Financial Crisis Early Warning Intelligence

魏晨 1赵冰峰 2吴晨生 1王冰琪1
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作者信息

  • 1. 北京市科学技术研究院科技情报研究所 北京 100044
  • 2. 北京科英坦利咨询有限公司 北京 100044
  • 折叠

摘要

[研究目的]金融安全是国家安全的重要构成部分.金融危机预警作为金融监管的前哨和第一道防线,可将危机扼杀在摇篮中或将灾害损失降到最少.因此,探究金融危机预警情报服务框架,不仅为完善金融风险治理提供新的思路,还有助于提升情报服务金融安全的能力和水平.[研究方法]基于情报学视角,采用访谈和文献调查方法,对金融危机预警情报失灵的根源进行探析,构建了金融危机预警情报框架,并从预警原则、情报感知、分析策略和预警机制等方面进行阐释.[研究结论]研究表明,实施分级分解的分析战略、转变预警方式和强化危机预警机制等手段,有助于在不确定风险中提高危机管理响应效能,减少危机预警情报失灵的发生.

Abstract

[Research purpose]Financial security is an important component of national security.Financial crisis warning,as the outpost and first line of defense for financial regulation,can minimize losses in economic and other aspects.Therefore,exploring the financial cri-sis warning intelligence service model not only provides new path for improving financial risk governance,but also helps to enhance the a-bility and level of intelligence services for financial security.[Research method]Based on the perspective of intelligence,this paper a-dopts interview method and document survey method,analyzes the root causes of the intelligence failure forms of financial crisis warning,constructs a framework for financial crisis warning intelligence,and explains it from aspects such as early warning principles,intelligence perception,analysis strategies and warning mechanisms.[Research conclusion]It shows that implementing a hierarchical and decom-posed analysis strategy,transforming warning methods and strengthening crisis warning mechanisms can enhance the intelligence response performance of financial crisis warning in uncertain risk scenarios,and reduce the occurrence of crisis warning failures.

关键词

金融危机/金融情报/情报失灵/预警情报模型/预警机制/危机管理

Key words

financial crisis/financial intelligence/intelligence failure/intelligence early warning model/early warning mechanism/crisis management

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基金项目

国家社会科学基金(21CTQ020)

出版年

2024
情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.502
ISSN:1002-1965
参考文献量35
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