[Research purpose]Analysis of inter-state conflict risks that China facing is important for improving national security risk mo-nitoring and early warning capabilities,which helps the country to find a way to maintain development in the complex international land-scape.[Research method]A framework of inter-state conflict risk monitoring and early warning model is proposed from the perspective of national security system,concluding inter-state conflict scenario perception,data collection and preprocessing,as well as inter-state conflict risk prediction.Two different models are constructed based on expert knowledge and case data respectively:BNISM and BNTAN.[Research conclusion]The model realizes real-time monitoring and early warning of inter-state conflict risk,and supports national secu-rity decision-making.The BNTAN performs well in the overall prediction and low inter-state conflict risk prediction,while the BNISM model has obvious advantages in the higher risk prediction.Future inter-state conflict risk monitoring and early warning models should consider the integration of multi-field knowledge and case data to promote the construction of a national security governance system.
关键词
国家安全/国家安全系统/国家间冲突/风险监测/预警模型/贝叶斯网络
Key words
national security/national security and safety system/inter-state conflict/risk surveillance/early-warning model/Bayesian Network
维普
万方数据