[Research purpose]Emergencies is often accompanied by the spread of online public opinion,which can cause social panic and intensify contradictions.In order to enhance the efficiency of addressing the vicious spread of online public opinion in emergencies,this paper explores the evolution and early warning mechanism of online public opinion for emergencies.[Research method]On the basis of combing the evolution process and early warning system,early warning mechanism of network public opinion for emergencies were pro-posed based on SEIR theory and SPN model.Additionally,the SEIR-SPN network public opinion early warning model was constructed,and the model operation path and warning rules were designed.At last,two cases were used to verify the practicability of the model.[Re-search conclusion]The results show that,by analyzing the evolutionary equilibrium point,transmission threshold and early warning prob-ability of online public opinion in emergencies,it can help to provide decision-making support in terms of whether to intervene and the de-gree of intervention.
关键词
网络舆情/突发事件/舆情演化/预警机制/SEIR-SPN/传播阈值/预警概率
Key words
online public opinion/emergencies/public opinion evolves/early warning mechanisms/SEIR-SPN/propagation threshold/early warning probability
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