Alternative Analysis Techniques for Strategic Intelligence Analysis:Based on the Review of the Cuban Missile Crisis
[Research purpose]Through the review of Sherman Kent's intelligence analysis failure in the Cuban Missile Crisis,we con-duct deeper research in and supplements to the"Mindset Theory"to provide advice and reference for the problems to avoid and techniques to adopt in strategic intelligence analysis.[Research method]We review Kent's cognition of mindset,advocated analytic techniques and his failed analytic process during the crisis,explain Alternative Analysis's basic implication,necessity,method and environmental require-ments.We reconstruct the analytic process of Cuban Missile Crisis,make a comparison of mindset,theory and practice,to find the main reason of his failure and come to the conclusion.[Research conclusion]Kent was vigilant about mental mindsets,and his failure was largely due to his refusal to adopt alternative analysis techniques to avoid his mindsets;in the face of complex security environment and un-certain important strategic issues,it is necessary to use alternative analysis techniques to reduce the possibility of intelligence analysis fail-ures and ensure that no subversive mistakes will be made.
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