Future Technology Identification Based on Application Scenarios
[Research purpose]Future technologies serve as the catalysts for the transformation of traditional industries and the building blocks for the future industries.It is of great significance to identify and predict future technologies from the perspective of the application of technology and its industrialization,because they play a pivotal role in shaping our nation's strategy for the future industries and enhan-cing our competitive advantages in development.[Research method]This paper constructs an application scenario-based model for iden-tifying future technologies in terms of technology units and technological solutions.Firstly,we identify the main application scenarios of the technology by employing Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA)to conduct topic clustering of the patents based on their intended uses.Secondly,we employ the KeyBERT algorithm to extract keywords from patent titles and novel text,enabling us to pinpoint frontier tech-nology solutions based on their novelty,relevance and importance.Finally,we define the technology units that generate frontier technolo-gy solutions as potential future technologies,construct a"technology influence-technology growth"coordinate diagram,and identify fu-ture technologies.[Research conclusion]Taking the field of Solid Oxide Fuel Cell(SOFC)as the empirical field,the effectiveness of the identification method is validated,through which we successfully identified 13 future technologies,primarily centered around SOFC batch manufacturing,controllable operation and practical application.