情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(6) :7-13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.06.002

2023年巴以冲突中以色列情报失误问题研究

Israeli's Intelligence Failures in the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

徐鹏 刘传平
情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(6) :7-13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.06.002

2023年巴以冲突中以色列情报失误问题研究

Israeli's Intelligence Failures in the 2023 Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

徐鹏 1刘传平2
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作者信息

  • 1. 中共贵州省委党校贵州发展制度保障高端智库 贵阳 550028;南京大学政府管理学院 南京 210023
  • 2. 中共江苏省委党校世界经济与政治教研部 南京 210009
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摘要

[研究目的]在2023 年哈马斯突袭以色列的行动中,以色列情报部门出现了严重失误.研究情报失误问题,能够为情报预警工作提供经验和启示.[研究方法]通过分析媒体报道、智库文章和学术成果,总结以色列在哈马斯突袭事件中失误的情报战略和情报战术原因.[研究结论]研究认为,以色列在情报战略方面未能将哈马斯作为首要战略威胁,错误估计了哈马斯能力和意图;在情报战术上过度依赖技术情报而轻人力情报,突袭发生后战场情报未能及时传递.以色列情报失误启示我们,应当均衡人力情报和技术情报能力,强化混合战争背景下的信息识别能力,避免情报政治化.

Abstract

[Research purpose]There was a serious failure by Israeli intelligence during the Hamas raid on Israel in 2023.Examining the issue of intelligence failures can provide lessons and insights for intelligence warning efforts.[Research method]This research summari-zes the reasons for Israel'failed intelligence strategy and tactics in the Hamas raid by analyzing media reports,think tank articles,and aca-demic research achievement.[Research conclusion]It concludes that Israel failed to treat Hamas as a primary strategic threat in its intelli-gence strategy and misjudged Hamas'capabilities and intentions;in terms of intelligence tactics,Israel over-relied on technical intelligence and under-relied on human intelligence,and failed to transmit battlefield intelligence in a timely manner after the raid.Israel'intelligence failures show that we should balance human and technical intelligence capabilities,strengthen our ability to identify information in the con-text of hybrid warfare,and avoid politicizing intelligence.

关键词

巴以冲突/战略情报/技术情报/人力情报/战场情报/情报失误/情报政治化/以色列

Key words

Israeli-Palestinian conflict/strategic intelligence/technical intelligence/human intelligence/battlefield intelligence/intelli-gence failures/politicization of intelligence/Israel

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出版年

2024
情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.502
ISSN:1002-1965
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