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多维特征视角下未来技术识别模型构建及应用

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[研究目的]科学识别未来技术是前瞻布局未来产业、抢占未来发展制高点的首要问题,能够为中国加快实现高水平科技自立自强提供决策参考.[研究方法]从未来技术前沿突破性、交叉融合性、战略主导性三大特征出发,遵循"指标设计—指标赋权—判定分析"的研究逻辑,首先筛选出9项未来技术特征指标,再结合博弈论组合赋权法识别特定领域的未来技术,最后根据特征得分划分未来技术所属类型.[研究结论]以全球芯片材料行业专利数据为实证样本,识别出过程辅助材料、衬底材料和封装材料三项未来技术主题,且分别属于"YbH—YfH—YdH""YbH—YfL—YdH""YbL—YfL—YdH"类型,研究结果与目前芯片材料行业发展趋势相一致,验证了未来技术识别模型的科学性和有效性.
Construction of Future Technology Identification Model and Its Application:From the Perspective of Multidimensional Features
[Research purpose]Scientific identification of future technologies is the first and foremost issue for forward-looking layout of future industries and seizing the commanding heights of future development,which can provide a reference for China to accelerate the reali-zation of high-level scientific and technological self-reliance and self-improvement.[Research method]This paper starts from the three characteristics of future technology:frontier breakthrough,cross-fertilization and strategic dominance,and carries out the research follow-ing the logic of"indicator design-indicator empowerment-judgment analysis".It firstly screens out 9 indicators of future technology char-acteristics,then identifies future technologies in specific fields by combining the game theory combination empowerment method,and fi-nally divides the types of future technologies according to the scores of the characteristics.[Research conclusion]Using the patent data of the global chip materials industry as an empirical sample,the paper identifies three future technology topics:process support materials,substrate materials,and packaging materials,which belong to the type of"YbH-YfH-YdH""YbH-YfL-YdH"and"YbL-YfL-YdH"respectively.The research results are consistent with the current development trend of the chip material industry,and verify the scientific validity and effectiveness of the future technology identification model.

future technologiestechnology identificationpatent dataindicator systemgame theory combinatorial empowerment meth-odchip materialsmultidimensional features

江瑶、陈旭、张凌恺

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上海工程技术大学管理学院 上海 201620

上海应用技术大学经济与管理学院 上海 201418

未来技术 技术识别 专利数据 指标体系 博弈论组合赋权法 芯片材料 多维特征

国家自然科学基金上海市青年科技英才"扬帆计划"项目教育部人文社会科学研究项目

7210413721YF141590023YJC630015

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.07.015

情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子：1.502
ISSN：1002-1965
年,卷(期)：2024.43(7)
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