Future Industry Identification Based on Multi-Source Big Data from the Perspective of Technology Foresight
[Research purpose]The future industry is driven by cutting-edge technology.By measuring the maturity of cutting-edge technology,it is helpful to obtain the development trends of future industries from the perspective of technology foresight.[Research method]Firstly,the LDA topic model was used to cluster literature data such as SCI,EI,patents and news reports.Then,the topic attri-bution coefficient was statistically analyzed by year to form a trend evolution chart for each technical topic year by year.Secondly,the Fisher Pry model was used to fit and analyze the literature data standardized by Min Max,in order to predict that it may develop into a cut-ting-edge technology in the future industry around 2035.Finally,based on data from China and the United States,a comparative analysis was conducted on the technological predictions of future industries in both countries.[Research conclusion]Based on empirical analysis results,we will take next-generation digital technology,quantum technology,optoelectronic technology,biomedicine and health,cutting-edge new materials,advanced energy,and aerospace development as the technological directions for China's future industrial layout by 2035.Three suggestions are proposed to promote the development of future industries,namely accelerating the research and breakthrough of cutting-edge technology in future industry,establishing an investment mechanism for the industrialization of cutting-edge technology through government,bank,enterprise,and social cooperation,and promoting the gathering and development of various levels of talents in future industry.
multi-source big datafuture industry identificationtechnology foresightidentification of cutting-edge technologytheme clusteringtechnology lifecycleLDAFisher-Pry
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据
