情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(12) :71-79.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.12.010

美国国防部智库在大国竞争中的作用研究—-—以(美国防部)净评估办公室为例

Study on the Role of Military Think Tank of U.S.Department of Defense in Major Country Competition:A Case Study of the Office of Net Assessment

雷磊 梁天
情报杂志2024,Vol.43Issue(12) :71-79.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-1965.2024.12.010

美国国防部智库在大国竞争中的作用研究—-—以(美国防部)净评估办公室为例

Study on the Role of Military Think Tank of U.S.Department of Defense in Major Country Competition:A Case Study of the Office of Net Assessment

雷磊 1梁天1
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作者信息

  • 1. 国防科技大学外国语学院 南京 210039
  • 折叠

摘要

[研究目的]研究美国国防部智库净评估办公室的发展,以及其在美国大国竞争中的做法与作用,分析其在首任主任安德鲁·马歇尔卸任后的衰落,对我建设高端军事智库具有参考价值.[研究方法]梳理净评估办公室的发展历程,总结净评估办公室的主要做法,探究其在美国大国竞争中发挥的作用.[研究结论]净评估办公室的主要做法有立足对手抢占战略先手、提出问题引发战略思考、全面评估完善战略决策、独立评估保持战略清醒、情报特权塑造战略胜势5个方面;对美国在大国竞争中起到的帮助作用主要在组织国家层面的净评估、充当国防部长的参谋助手、帮助美国赢得长期战略竞争、推动美军"新军事革命"4个方面.其衰落主要表现为净评估产品质量下降、国防部长信任不再以及情报特权难以为继3个方面.

Abstract

[Research purpose]By studying the development of the Office of Net Assessment(ONA),a think tank of the U.S.Depart-ment of Defense,reviewing its practices and roles in major country competition for the United States and analyzing its decline after the res-ignation of Andrew Marshall,the first Director of the ONA,the research provides a critical reference for the construction of Chinese high-end military think tanks.[Research method]This paper combs through the development of the ONA,summarizes its major measures and explores its role in the major country competition for the U.S.[Research conclusion]Major practices of the ONA can be summarized as the following 5 aspects,seizing strategic opportunities through being in the rivals shoes,arousing strategic thinking through raising ques-tions,improving strategic decision-making ability through all-round assessment,maintaining strategic focus through independent evalua-tion,shaping favorable strategic situation via intelligence privilege.Roles of the ONA for the U.S.in major country competition can be concluded as the following 4 aspects,organizing net assessment on the national level,acting as staff member for the Secretary of Defense,helping the U.S.win the long-term strategic competition and promoting the Revolution in the Military Affairs of the U.S.armed forces.Its decline involves 3 aspects:degradation of the Net Assessment products,broken trust from the Secretary of Defense and inability to maintain its intelligence privilege.

关键词

军事智库/大国竞争/净评估/净评估办公室/国家战略/美国

Key words

military think tank/great power competition/net assessment/The Office of Net Assessment/national strategy/the United States

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出版年

2024
情报杂志
陕西省科学技术信息研究所

情报杂志

CSTPCDCSSCICHSSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.502
ISSN:1002-1965
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