首页|老年人无事故责任情境下事故特征及积极溢出效应措施研究

老年人无事故责任情境下事故特征及积极溢出效应措施研究

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相比于事故责任方,在对无事故责任方进行研究并采取措施时,由于这些措施通常不是事故的直接原因,因此即使采取了措施,其带来的安全改善效果也会相对较小,这就是边际效应的体现.鉴于此,本文基于2017至2020年国内某自治区的交通事故数据,运用关联规则算法,对无事故责任老年人在事故中的个人属性、肇事者特征以及道路环境等因素进行挖掘,旨在探究无事故责任情况下老年人事故存在的共性特征,并识别哪些改善交通安全的措施不仅能直接使事故责任方降低肇事水平,还可以对老年人的交通安全产生积极的影响,即对老年人交通安全产生积极的溢出效应,从而有效保障老年人的交通安全.结果表明,老年人在行走于道路控制设施不完善的一般城市道路时,可能易遭受机动车刮撞,从而遭受不同程度的伤害;老年人可能会在未设置道路控制设施的开放道路因车辆间碰撞事故而受到不同程度的伤害;拓宽道路、完善道路控制设施、改善道路眺望环境以及对驾驶人进行文明驾驶教育宣传工作的溢出效应均能够对老年人的交通安全产生积极的影响.本文为老年人交通事故特征分析、管控和治理方面提供参考.
Study on characteristics and influencing factors of accident liability parties in scenarios where elderly persons are not at fault
When compared to targeting those responsible for accidents,studying and taking measures specifically for those not at fault can result in relatively smaller improvements in safety,even after implementing such measures.This is because these measures typically do not address the direct causes of accidents,reflecting the marginal effect.Given this context,this paper utilizes traffic accident data from a domestic autonomous region between 2017 and 2020 and employs association rule algorithms to explore factors such as the personal attributes of elderly individuals not at fault in accidents,characteristics of perpetrators,and road conditions.The aim is to identify common characteristics among accidents involving the elderly who are not at fault and to recognize which measures aimed at improving traffic safety can not only directly reduce the accident rate among those responsible but also significantly and positively impact the traffic safety of the elderly.This positive spillover effect on elderly traffic safety effectively safeguards their well-being.The results indicate that:Elderly individuals are more susceptible to being hit by motor vehicles and suffering varying degrees of injury when walking on ordinary urban roads with inadequate traffic control facilities;Elderly people may also suffer varying degrees of harm in collisions between vehicles on open roads without traffic control facilities.Measures such as widening roads,improving traffic control facilities,enhancing road visibility,and conducting educational campaigns on civilized driving for drivers all demonstrate significant positive spillover effects on the traffic safety of the elderly.This study provides valuable insights for analyzing,managing,and addressing the characteristics of traffic accidents involving the elderly.

Association rulestraffic safetyelderlyspillover effect

梁嘉俊、吐尔逊·买买提、丛浩哲

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新疆农业大学交通与物流工程学院,乌鲁木齐 830052,中国

公安部道路交通安全研究中心,北京 100106,中国

关联规则 交通安全 老年人 溢出效应

公安部软科学项目

2023LL61

2024

汽车与安全
中国机动车辆安全鉴定检测中心

汽车与安全

ISSN:1006-6713
年,卷(期):2024.(5)
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