首页|Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model
Research on the Relationship Between Environmental and Economic Coupling Systems in Bohai Bay Area Based on a Vector Autoregression(VAR)Model
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This study analyzed the impact of land-based contaminants and tertiary industrial structure on economic development in the selected Bohai Bay area,China.Based on panel data spanning 2011-2020,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model is used to ana-lyze and forecast the short-run and long-run relationships between three industrial structures,pollutant discharge,and economic de-velopment.The results showed that the environmental index had a long-term cointegration relationship with the industrial structure economic index.Per capital chemical oxygen demand(PCOD)and per capita ammonia nitrogen(PNH3N)had a positive impact on delta per capita GDP(dPGDP),while per capita solid waste(PSW),the secondary industry rate(SIR)and delta tertiary industry(dTIR)had a negative impact on dPGDP.The VAR model under this coupling system had stability and credibility.The impulse re-sponse results showed that the short-term effect of the coupling system on dPGDP was basically consistent with the Granger causa-lity test results.In addition,variance decomposition was used in this study to predict the long-term impact of the coupling system in the next ten periods(i.e.,ten years).It was found that dTIR had a great impact on dPGDP,with a contribution rate as high as 74.35％in the tenth period,followed by the contribution rate of PCOD up to 3.94％,while the long-term contribution rates of PSW,SIR and PNH3N were all less than 1％.The results show that the government should support the development of the tertiary industry to main-tain the vitality of economic development and prevent environmental deterioration.
Bohai Bay areaenvironmental pollutionindustrial structurecointegration theoryVAR modelimpulse response
CAO Huimin、WANG Ping、ZHANG Surong、XU Dongpo、TIAN Weijun
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Key Laboratory of Marine Environment and Ecology,Ministry of Education,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China
Business School,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266100,China
research funds for Coupling Research on Industrial Upgrade and Environmental Management in the Bohai Rim-Technique,methodolo
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