Impacts of Climate Change on Heat Waves,Atmospheric Stagnation and Their Compound Events in China
The occurrence of heat waves,atmospheric stagnation and their compound events(referred to as compound heat wave and atmospheric stagnation)can exacerbate air pollution and harm human health.Based on the dynamical downscaling method and two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs),this study uses a regional model to simulate and explore the changes in climate and weather extremes under the SSPs scenarios for China's historical period(2000-2019)and mid-century(2050-2069).Compared with the global model,the regional model significantly reduces the simulation bias of 2 m temperature and boundary layer height by 94％and 85％,and reproduces the spatial distribution of ex-treme weather.Under the carbon-neutral-like SSP1-2.6 scenario,the total number of heat wave and compound heat wave and atmospheric stagnation event days in mid-century China increases by 31％and 35％,respectively,compared with the historical period;while under the fossil fuel-dominated SSP5-8.5 scenario,the average increase of the two reaches 74％and 85％.The increase in single extremes such as heat waves and compound heat wave and atmospheric stagnation events are more pronounced in the SSP5-8.5 scenario than in the SSP1-2.6 scenario,and therefore reducing fossil fuel use and achieving carbon neutral policy goals can effectively mitigate the increase in extremes,especially compound ex-tremes.
万方数据
维普
