基于改进相关系数和IGOWLA算子的三角模糊数组合预测模型
Triangular fuzzy number combination prediction model based on improved correlation coefficient and IGOWLA operator
杨烨 1袁宏俊 1陈倩如2
作者信息
- 1. 安徽财经大学统计与应用数学学院,233030,蚌埠市
- 2. 合肥工业大学管理学院,230009,安徽省合肥市
- 折叠
摘要
随着经济系统复杂程度日益提高,用三角模糊数能更好地反映不确定信息.为保证预测结果的内部整体性,提出将三角模糊数序列的3个界点值转化为等价信息的面积中心、中界值、重心并构建新的序列.随后以预测精度为诱导因子,构建诱导广义有序加权对数平均(IGOWLA)算子,在此基础上选取改进后的Pearson相关系数作为最优准则,构建多目标组合预测模型,并引入偏好系数将模型进一步转化为单目标规划模型,通过实例分析证明了组合预测模型的有效性.结果表明:该组合预测模型可以在保证内部整体性的基础上有效地提高预测精度.
Abstract
The triangular fuzzy numbers can better reflect the uncertain information of the economic system.To improve the prediction accuracy of the triangular fuzzy numbers on the basis of considering the internal wholeness,a new sequence of the three bounding values of the triangular fuzzy number sequence is proposed to be transformed into a new sequence of equivalent information.Taking the prediction accuracy as the inducing factor,the induced generalised ordered weighted logarithmic average(IGOWLA)operator is constructed,the improved Pearson correlation coefficient is selected as the optimal criterion,the prefer-ence coefficient is introduced to construct the model into a generalised single objective planning model,and the effectiveness of the combined prediction model is demonstrated through example analysis.The results show that the combined prediction model can effectively improve the prediction accuracy on the basis of en-suring internal wholeness.
关键词
三角模糊数/改进相关系数/组合预测/IGOWLAKey words
triangular fuzzy number/improved correlation coefficient/combination prediction/IGOWLA引用本文复制引用
基金项目
安徽省哲学社会科学规划(AHSKY2020D42)
安徽省高校自然科学重点项目(2022AH050602)
安徽财经大学重大项目(ACK-YA21004)
安徽财经大学研究生科创基金(ACYC2022363)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据