首页|气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

气候变化对跨境水资源影响的适应性评估与管理框架

扫码查看
气候变化增加了国际河流冲突的可能性,加强跨境水资源适应性管理是流域国可持续发展的必然选择.梳理了适应性相关研究的国内外最新进展,认识到适应性管理的关键问题是要发展一套科学评估未来气候变化影响及适应性策略的程序.通过论述气候变化下跨境水资源的适应性评估与管理框架,提出一个气候变化影响决策评估工具,包括信息收集、需求分析、对策分析、综合评估以及实施与调控5个阶段.该项研究将适应性管理与气候变化、定量化脆弱性及适应能力关联评价、成本效益分析、多目标优化决策和动态调控等有机结合,为从跨界层面制定具有针对性的适应性管理对策提供了思路与方法,有利于促进国际河流流域可持续发展.
Impacts of climate change on transboundary water resources and adaptation management framework
Global climate change increases the possibility of disputes in international rivers. Avoiding such problems and effectively navigating the threats imposed by climate change will require substantial adaption measures and broader cooperation among the riparian countries in international river basins,while pursuing sustainable development. This paper reviews progress of studies in this field,and finds that the key factor of adaptive management is to establish a set of procedures for scientific assessment. Therefore,an adaptation assessment and management framework applied to impacts of climate change is developed. It includes qualitative description and analysis of the international river basins,semi-quantitative analyses of the potential impacts of future climate change and adaptive capacity across the basins,quantitative analysis of cost-benefit and assessment of adaptation options. This paper provides an effective framework tool and methodology for proposing more targeted adaption measures to combat climate change in international river basins.

Climate changeTransboundary water resourcesAdaptation managementAssessment framework

匡洋、李浩、夏军、杨泽川

展开 >

长江水利委员会长江科学院国际河流研究所,武汉 430010

武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉 430072

水利部国际经济技术合作交流中心,北京 100053

气候变化 跨境水资源 适应性管理 评估框架

国家自然科学基金中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费资助项目

51279140CKSF2017033/GJ

2018

气候变化研究进展
国家气候中心

气候变化研究进展

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:1.711
ISSN:1673-1719
年,卷(期):2018.14(1)
  • 18
  • 15