中国1960-2019年体感温度的时空变化及其风险分析
The spatiotemporal changes and risk analysis of apparent temperature in China from 1960 to 2019
陈婷婷 1余文君 1李艳忠 1白鹏 2星寅聪 1黄曼捷 1邵伟1
作者信息
- 1. 南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院,南京 210044;水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室,南京 210044
- 2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所/中国科学院陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京 100101
- 折叠
摘要
体感温度(Apparent Temperature,AP)描述了人体实际感受到的温度.文中基于我国1960-2019 年的空气温度、相对湿度和风速等气象要素数据,估算并分析了 4 个典型气候区(湿润区、过渡区、干旱区和青藏高原)AP的时空变化格局及其高温风险.结果发现:(1)在空间分布上,AP由东南沿海向西北内陆递减,平均AP值由湿润区(约为17.0℃)逐渐向干旱区(约为7.0℃)和青藏高原区(约为0.6℃)递减;(2)全国AP呈现显著上升的趋势,4个典型气候区的上升速率分别为0.29℃/(10 a)、0.27℃/(10 a)、0.15℃/(10 a)和0.13℃/(10 a);(3)气温变化对AP的贡献率最高,约为92.4%,其次是风速及相对湿度,约为5.6%和2.0%;(4)典型气候区的高温风险天数变化呈现空间异质性,湿润区和青藏高原大部分地区均呈现显著增长趋势.
Abstract
Apparent temperature(AP)describes the actual temperature felt by the human body.Based on meteorological data such as temperature,relative humidity,and wind speed from 1960 to 2019 in China,the spatiotemporal variation patterns and high temperature risks of AP were estimated and analyzed in four typical climate zones(humid zone,transitional zone,arid zone,and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau).The results showed that:(1)In terms of spatial distribution,AP decreased from the southeast coastal area to the northwest inland area,and the average AP value gradually decreased from the humid area(about 17.0℃)to the arid area(about 7.0℃)and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau area(about 0.6℃).(2)The national AP showed a significant upward trend,with the rates in four typical climate zones being 0.29℃/(10 a),0.27℃/(10 a),0.15℃/(10 a),and 0.13℃/(10 a),respectively.(3)The contribution rate of temperature changes to AP was the highest,about 92.4%,followed by wind speed and relative humidity,about 5.6%and 2.0%respectively.(4)70%to 80%of humid areas are defined as risk areas,and the number of days with high temperatures is increasing year by year.The 1.2%regional risk increase in the Qinghai Tibet Plateau is significant(0.22 d/a).Drought and transitional zones account for 30%to 40%of risk areas,and the risk gradually increases.The variation of high temperature risk days in typical climate zones showed spatial heterogeneity,with significant growth trends observed in most areas of humid regions and the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.
关键词
体感温度(AP)/时空变化/中国气候区/归因分析/风险分析Key words
Apparent temperature(AP)/Spatial and temporal changes/China's climate zone/Attribution analysis/Risk analysis引用本文复制引用
基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41901076)
国家自然科学基金(41931180)
出版年
2024
国家科技期刊平台
NSTL
万方数据