输电网的规划与当地城镇经济发展规划密切相关,而城镇经济发展面临许多不确定性,因此输电网建设成本和预期收益面临不确定性.提出一种考虑预期不确定性和非预期不确定性的输电网多阶段随机规划模型,首先将输电网规划时长分为多个阶段,考虑源荷的预期不确定性,基于信息间隙决策理论(information gap decision theory,IGDT)建立输电网多阶段随机规划模型,为应对突发的非预期不确定性,采用模型预测控制理论降低非预期不确定因素对投资额的影响,最后以某一地区输电网为算例,验证所建立模型的有效性,并分析风险投机策略和风险规避策略对投资额的影响.
Multi-stage Stochastic Planning of Transmission and Distribution Network Considering Expected Uncertainty and Unexpected Uncertainty
Transmission network planning is closely related to local urban economic development planning,and urban economic development faces many uncertainties,so transmission network construction costs and expected benefits face uncertainties.This paper proposes a multi-stage stochastic planning model for transmission network that considers expected uncertainty and unexpected uncertainty.Firstly,the planning time of transmission network is divided into several stages,considering the expected uncertainty of source load,and based on the information gap decision theory,In order to cope with sudden unexpected uncertainties,the model predictive control theory is used to reduce the impact of unexpected uncertainties on investment.Finally,the transmission network of a certain region is taken as an example to verify the effectiveness of the established model,and the impact of risk speculation strategy and risk avoidance strategy on investment is analyzed.
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