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新中国成立以来中国粮食生产多元要素驱动定量研究

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粮食安全事关国家安全与社会稳定,该文基于1949-2020年中国31个省级行政区(不含香港特别行政区、澳门特别行政区和台湾地区)的数据,采用Cobb-Douglas函数,按照不同的地域范围划分方式构建了区域粮食生产模型,量化解析了不同时段内的第一产业从业人员数、机械动力强度、有效灌溉面积、化肥折纯量、受灾面积和复种指数对粮食产量的作用.结果表明,有效灌溉面积和化肥折纯量对中国粮食生产的贡献度不断提升,第一产业从业人员数和复种指数的贡献度显著下降,机械动力强度的贡献度先提升再下降,受灾面积对粮食的减产效用先增强再减弱;各要素对粮食生产的驱动作用趋于均衡化,未来粮食安全需依靠以有效灌溉面积为基础的多要素协同保障;有效灌溉面积的北移和人口重心的南移共同驱动了中国粮食调运格局的转变,这种"北粮南运"的格局仍将持续并可能呈现扩大态势.保障中国粮食安全需充分发挥国家水网的水资源调配功能,通过增加有效灌溉面积驱动多要素协同促进粮食增产.
Quantitative study on the key driving factors of grain production in China from 1949 to 2020
[Objective]In China,food is a fundamental necessity for the people and represents a key national interest.Food security is vital for economic development,social stability,and national security.However,current research often features relatively short time series data,and the vital role of irrigation as a key factor in grain production has been largely overlooked.This oversight has hindered the effective elucidation of the patterns of contribution from diverse production factors across regions and stages.Regarding food security strategy,data from 31 province-level regions in China were analyzed using grain production as a metric.During this analysis,we quantified the impact and variations of different factors on regional grain production from 1949 to 2020.The analysis was conducted at the different geographical scale.This study aims to identify the primary driving factors and provide insights to support the stable growth of grain production in China.[Methods]To achieve this goal,a model was constructed using the Cobb-Douglas function,with grain production as the dependent variable.The explanatory variables introduced into the model comprised practitioners in the primary industry,agricultural machinery power,effective irrigation area,net fertilizer quantity,affected area,and cropping index.Additionally,a random error term was incorporated into the model.To address issues of multicollinearity among the data,ridge regression was used to fit the model.The values required for machinery,effective irrigation area,net fertilizer quantity,and affected area in the model were calculated by multiplying the total power of agricultural machinery,effective irrigation area of farmland,net quantity of fertilizer for agricultural production,and total affected area for agriculture by the proportion of grain-sowing area to the total sowing area of crops.[Results]The research results indicated a continuous increase in the contribution of effective irrigation area and net fertilizer quantity to grain production in China,while the elasticity coefficients of the practitioners in the primary industry and cropping index on grain output have significantly decreased.Additionally,the contribution of mechanical power to grain production first increased and then decreased,and the impact of the affected area on grain yield reduction strengthened before weakening.Notably,the elasticity coefficient of the effective irrigation area on grain production in China has increased from 0.155(1949-1959)to 0.424(2000-2020),making it the primary driving factor for the increase in grain production.Moreover,the impact of various production factors on grain yield tended toward equilibrium,and the significant contribution of individual factors considerably decreased over time.In the future,ensuring food security will require a coordinated approach involving multiple factors,with the effective irrigation area serving as the foundational component.Additionally,the impact of random error terms such as prices,seeds,and policies in grain production has gradually increased,requiring increased attention in the future.Furthermore,the grain transportation pattern of China is determined by the alignment of population,land,and water.In recent years,the northward expansion of effective irrigation areas and the southward shift of the population center have jointly facilitated the transformation of the grain transportation pattern of China from south-to-north to north-to-south.In the near future,as the population gradually moves southward and faces limitations on southern farmland,the north-to-south grain transportation pattern can persist and may even intensify.[Conclusions]The research findings indicated that effective irrigation area plays a crucial role in coordinating the configuration of agricultural production factors.In the future,maximizing the water resource allocation function of the national water network is vital.Therefore,the construction and expansion of the national water network will enhance water resource security and support the expansion of irrigation scale,thereby facilitating a synergistic combination of multiple factors to promote grain production.

food securitynational water networkeffective irrigation areanorth-to-south grain transportridge regression

秦长海、王明、赵勇、何国华、曲军霖、游梦园

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中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京 100038

中国水利水电科学研究院水利部京津冀水安全保障重点实验室,北京 100038

粮食安全 国家水网 有效灌溉面积 北粮南运 岭回归

国家重点研发计划项目国家自然科学基金国家杰出青年科学基金项目国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作研究与交流项目国家自然科学基金重点项目国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目

2021YFC320020452025093520611251015223900452109042

2024

清华大学学报(自然科学版)
清华大学

清华大学学报(自然科学版)

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:0.586
ISSN:1000-0054
年,卷(期):2024.64(10)