Review of High Temperature Weather Process Forecast in Qinghai Province in Mid-to-Late July 2021
From July 10 to 24,2021,northern Qinghai continued to have sunny weather for many days,and the average and maximum temperatures in the province showed an increase trend,during which the daily maximum temperature exceeded 22.5℃for 11 days.Among them,a total of 22 stations had a high daily maximum temperature of≥30℃,according to Qinghai Province's"Meteorological Disaster Grading Index"(DB63/T372-2018),11 stations of Xunhua,Ledu,Ping'an,Minhe,Jianza,Guide,Xining,Xiaozaohuo,Nuomhong,Lenghu,Golmud had a maximum daily temperature of≥30℃for 3 consecutive days,reaching the standard of mild high temperature heat damage.In view of the high temperature weather process,Qinghai Climate Center gave good predictions from different advance quantities,including seasonal,monthly and extension scales:from the perspective of trend forecast,the characteristics of consistent high temperature in July and higher than 1℃in most areas were well grasped.However,it's not accurately predicted that the temperature was 2-3℃higher in some parts of the eastern agricultural areas and northwestern in Qaidam Basin.From the perspective of weather process prediction,although accurate prediction of heating process has been made for the late early to mid late ten-day period,there was a lack of understanding of the intensity of high temperatures.In the prediction of similar high-temperature weather processes in the future,it is necessary to strengthen research on high-temperature process diagnosis and localized interpretation of mainstream models at home and abroad,providing a reference basis for objective and quantitative prediction of high-temperature processes in this province.
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