Vertification of Precipitation Forecast Based on Global Numerical Models in Qinghai in Summer of 2021
Based on site observations and 24-hour precipitation forecast data from global numerical models(ECMWF,CMA-GFS),the TS score and false alarm ratio are used for verification and comparative analysis.The main results showed that:TS scores of ECMWF and CMA-GFS models to light rain were higher and more stable,while TS scores to different level precipitation above moderate rain was getting lower with increasing precipitation level.Precipitation forecast to light rain of two models had higher hit rate in the Qilian Mountain and the south area of Qinghai,followed by the eastern valley areas,the hit rate was lowest in the Qaidam Basin.Two models had a certain hit rate for heavy rain in the valley area of eastern Qinghai,but its value was low,ranging from 0.09 to 0.5,and the hit rate for heavy rain of EC model was higher than CMA-GFS model.
Numerical modelVertification of precipitation forecastSummerQinghai
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
