Prediction of the Spatial and Temporal Changes in Land Use in Maqu County Based on the CA-Markov Model
Taking Maqu County of Gansu Province as the study area,and based on the land use data from 2000 to 2020 in Maqu County,a land use transition matrix was employed to analyze the changes in land use types over the past two decades,and the cellular automaton-Markov(CA-Markov)model was used to simulate and forecast land use changes in Maqu County by 2030.The results showed that the main types of land use in Maqu County were grasslands,shrubs,and water bodies,with a relatively small built-up area.From 2000 to 2010,the changes in land use types were primarily in the southeast,where the area of wetlands became larger and more uniform.The changes in the area of other types were relatively fragmented.The main changes in land use types from 2010 to 2020 were also in the southeast,mainly involving grasslands and wetlands.The CA-Markov model was used to simulate and predict the land use change in Maqu County by 2030,focusing mainly on grassland changes,with a Kappa coefficient of 0.82.This study can provide reference for the future sustainable development planning of Maqu County.
Maqu countyCA-Markov modelLand use typeModel prediction
万方数据
维普
