Contribution of the China-Europe Railway Express under the Belt and Road Initiative to Carbon Emission Reduction
With increasing global warming,reducing carbon emissions has become a common goal for the international community.China-Europe Railway Express,as a flagship project of the Belt and Road Initiative,contributes to the development of China-Europe trade;however,its impact on mitigating carbon emissions has not been extensively studied.Existing research has primarily focused on the economic benefits of the China-Europe Railway Express and empirical analyses of its impact on carbon reduction are relatively scarce.Consequently,this study aims to uncover the role of the China-Europe Railway Express in carbon emission mitigation.It employs the autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model to simulate and predict changes in the share of railway transportation in China-Europe trade in the absence of the China-Europe Railway Express and compares these predictions with actual scenarios in which the China-Europe Railway Express is operational.Additionally,the study adopts a bottom-up approach using the carbon emission calculation method based on the total cargo turnover to compute the carbon emissions of the China-Europe Railway Express.Results reveal that the establishment of the China-Europe Railway Express has notably altered the share of various transportation modes used in the China-Europe trade.Specifically,while trading from China to the China-Europe and vice versa,carbon emissions were reduced by approximately 1.18 and 1.69 million tons,respectively,resulting in a total reduction of approximately 2.87 million tons of carbon emissions in both directions.However,the Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 negatively impacted the transport and carbon reduction effects of the China-Europe Railway Express.Despite this setback,in the long run,the strategic importance of the China-Europe Railway Express in optimizing the transportation structure and mitigating carbon emissions remains irreplaceable.Thus,this study contributes to a deeper understanding of the carbon reduction effects of the China-Europe Railway Express and provides a reference for decision-making in promoting the green development of the Belt and Road Initiative.
China-Europe Railway ExpressBelt and Road InitiativeCarbon emissionsTransportation
NETL
NSTL
万方数据
