In March 2024,the Annual Symposium on China Climate Prediction for the summer season(June-August)was held at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics(IAP),Chinese Academy of Sciences.In the background of a transition from an El Niño event to an El Niño-Southern Oscillation normal state over the next three to five months,climate anomalies in China for the 2024 summer are predicted based on the results of various numerical and statistical models developed by the IAP.During the 2024 flood season(June-August),seasonally averaged precipitation is expected to slightly exceed normal levels in the most parts of Northeast China,the eastern part of North China,the lower reaches of the Yellow River,the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the most parts of Xizang,the southern part of Shaanxi Province,and the southern and eastern parts of Southwest China.In particular,rainfall may be 20%-50%higher than normal in the northern and eastern parts of Northeast China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,implying the high possibility of local flooding disasters.By contrast,other parts of China may experience drier-than-normal conditions over the coming summer.Additionally,the precipitation amount may be reduced by 20%-50%in the northern part of Xinjiang,the western part of Inner Mongolia,and the southeast coastal region of China.Furthermore,landing typhoons may occur less frequently this summer.Owing to the uncertainty in the evolution trends of sea surface temperature anomalies in tropical oceans and the limited ability to predict intraseasonal variations in the western Pacific subtropical high and mid-high latitude atmospheric circulations,the climate prediction results for the 2024 flood season are uncertain to some extent.
关键词
汛期气候预测/厄尔尼诺—南方涛动/西太平洋副热带高压/中高纬度环流/东亚夏季风/夏季降水异常
Key words
Climate prediction for flood season/El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)/Western Pacific subtropical high/Mid-high latitude circulation/East Asian summer monsoon/Summer precipitation anomaly
维普
万方数据