摘要
基于站点降水观测资料和多种模式评估方法,评估了参加国际耦合模式比较计划第六阶段(CMIP6)的30个全球模式对1961～2014年我国北方季风区盛夏(7～8月)降水气候态和主模态的模拟能力,结果表明:1)大多数模式均能再现北方季风区盛夏气候态降水呈东南向西北递减的空间分布特征,对空间分布模拟能力最好的 4 个模式为 MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM、MPI-ESM1-2-HR、MPI-ESM1-2-LR 和 E3SM-1-0.2)综合衡量对气候态、第一模态及其年际变率模拟能力最好的4个模式为NESM3、E3SM-1-0、GFDL-ESM4和MPI-ESM1-2-LR.3)综合衡量对气候态、第二模态及其年际变率模拟能力最好的5个模式为EC-Earth3-Veg、EC-Earth3、E3SM-1-0、NESM3和MPI-ESM1-2-HR.4)多模式集合平均的模拟能力好于大部分模式.
Abstract
The 30 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)have been evaluated in reproducing the climatological spatial distribution and major modes of midsummer precipitation over the monsoon region in the northern part of China(NCMR)during 1961-2014.Based on evaluation indexes,such as spatial correlation coefficient,root-mean-square error,interannual variability score,and relative deviation,it is concluded that four models(MPI-ESM-1-2-HAM,MPI-ESM1-2-HR,MPI-ESM1-2-LR,and E3SM-1-0)can well capture the spatial distributions of midsummer precipitation over the NCMR.Models that can comprehensively evaluate the climatological spatial distribution,EOF1(EOF2),and its interannual variability of midsummer precipitation over the NCMR are NESM3,E3SM-1-0,GFDL-ESM4,and MMI-ESM1-2-LR(EC-Earth3-Veg,EC-Earth3,E3SM-1-0,NESM3,and MPI-ESM1-2-HR).The average simulation capability of a multimodel ensemble is better than that of most models.
基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2023YFC3007700)
国家自然科学基金项目(41875093)
国家自然科学基金项目(41975101)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2024JC-YBQN-0354)
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2023J002)
黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(LH2022D022)
维普
万方数据