基于灰色系统理论的油气管道腐蚀速率预测
Prediction of Corrosion Rate of Oil and Gas Pipelines Based on Grey System Theory
王栋 1邹亚飞 2耿慧晶3
作者信息
- 1. 陕西能源职业技术学院,建筑与测绘工程学院,陕西 咸阳 712000
- 2. 国家管网西气东输公司甘陕输气分公司,陕西 西安 710016
- 3. 中国石油天然气股份有限公司储气库分公司,北京 100000
- 折叠
摘要
随着海洋油气资源的进一步开发,更多的海底管道开始投入使用,为了保证安全生产和海洋环境不被污染,对海底管道腐蚀速率的研究至关重要.目前有许多学者针对海底管道腐蚀速率开展了研究,除了传统的实验方法,也有许多数学预测方法被使用.本文建立了基于灰色系统理论的GM(0,6)和GM(1,6)两种模型对海底管道腐蚀速率进行研究,对比了两种模型的预测精度,结果表明GM(0,6)模型预测精度更高,平均相对误差为2.98%.
Abstract
With the further development of offshore oil and gas resources,more submarine pipelines have begun to be put into use,and in order to ensure safe production and the marine environment is not polluted,the study of the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines is indispensable.At present,many scholars have studied the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines,and in addition to traditional experimental methods,many mathematical prediction methods have been used.In this paper,two models based on gray system theory are established to study the corrosion rate of submarine pipelines,and the prediction accuracy of the GM(0,6)model is compared,and the results show that the GM(0,6)model has higher prediction accuracy and an average relative error of 2.98%.
关键词
灰色系统理论/GM(0,N)/GM(1,N)/腐蚀速率/预测模型Key words
grey systems theory/GM(0,N)/GM(1,N)/corrosion rat/predictive models引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据