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京津冀地区强对流时空分布与天气学特征分析

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利用2001-2008年5-9月京津冀地区175站危险天气报和灾情报告资料以及NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料,采用统计分析等方法,对京津冀地区雷雨大风、冰雹和短时暴雨3类强对流天气的时空分布以及环流特征进行了分析.结果表明:(1)雷雨大风多为7~8级,主要盛行偏北或偏西风,京津冀中南部、西北部和京津风速较大;冰雹以中雹为主,京津冀西北部、北部和京津冰雹直径较大;短时暴雨突发性强,10~60分钟内,降水量≥20 mm且<25 mm出现站次较多,而130~180分钟内,降水最≥50 mm且<100 mm出现站次较多.(2)2001-2008年,雷雨大风多发生在5-6月,而冰雹的多发期集中在6月份,7-8月则是短时暴雨的频发时期.(3)除短时暴雨外,强对流高频区与太行山、阴山山脉走向较为一致,从京津冀西北部向东南方向递减,并有明显日变化特征,62%的强对流发生在午后到傍晚14:00-20:00时段.(4)京津冀强对流环流形势主要有3类:以冰雹天气为主伴随霄雨大风和短时暴雨的冷涡型,雷雨大风为主并伴随短时暴雨的冷槽型以及短时暴雨为主的低槽副高型.通过典型个例的系统配置建立的天气学概念模型对业务预报有较好参考价值.
A Study of Temporal-Spatial Distribution and Synoptic Characteristics of Severe Convective Weather in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei
Based on the hazardous weather report, disaster telegraph data and NCEP l°× 1° reanalysis data from 175 stations in Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei from May to September during 2001-2008, the statistical analyses are used to explore the temporal-spatial distribution and synoptic characteristics of severe convective weather there. The analysis results indicate that: (1) In this period, the wind force always reaches 7-8 scales with prevailing northerly and westerly winds, the south-central and northwest of Hebei area, and Beijing and Tianjin have strong winds; Larger hails often occur in Beijing, Tianjin and the northwest and north of Hebei; Within 10-60 minutes, the precipitation easily reaches 20-25 mm, while during 130-180 minutes, the precipitation can reach 50-100 mm. (2) During 2001-2008, the winds often occur in May and June, the hails occur in June, but the short-time rainstorms occur in July and August; (3) Except for short-time rainstorms, winds and hails approach to the Taihang and Yinshan Mountains and reduce gradually from northwest to southeast. The severe convective weather has the obvious characteristics of daily variation, a majority of severe convective weathers (62%) occur in the afternoon and early evening (14:00-20:00 BT). (4) There are three main weather circulations: the cold vortex pattern in which mainly appear hails accompanied by gales or short-time rainstorms, the cold trough pattern in which mainly appear strong winds with short-time rainstorm, and the trough and subtropical anticyclone pattern which always brings short-time rainstorms. A weather conceptual model which is established through the typical case has a good significance for weather forecasting.

severe convective weathertemporal-spatial distributionconceptual model

苏永玲、何立富、巩远发、李泽椿、郁珍艳

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成都信息工程学院,成都,610225

国家气象中心,北京,100081

强对流 时空分布 概念模型

公益性行业科研专项

GYHY200706042

2011

气象
国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCDCSCD北大核心
影响因子:2.337
ISSN:1000-0526
年,卷(期):2011.37(2)
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