5月南极涛动对青藏高原西部夏季气温影响的诊断分析

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中文摘要：青藏高原是全球气候变暖最敏感的地区之一，是北半球夏季最大的热源，其气候响应受到广泛关注。然而，有关南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系和机理知之甚少。为了研究南极涛动与青藏高原夏季气温的关系，基于1979-2020年英国东安哥拉大学气候研究中心(CRU)的逐月气温、美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的逐月海表面温度和大气环流再分析数据以及南极涛动指数等数据，采用相关、回归、合成分析等方法进行研究。结果表明，北半球夏季青藏高原西部气温与5月南极涛动存在显著负相关，即当5月南极涛动异常偏弱时，夏季青藏高原西部气温异常偏高。其影响过程为，南极涛动为正位相时，在南印度洋中高纬地区出现"负-正-负"的经向"三极子"海温模态，该模态可持续到夏季，在印度洋形成异常的纬向-垂直环流，相应在热带西印度洋和东印度洋-海洋性大陆之间的降水异常导致热带正"偶极子"降水模态，通过该降水模态在青藏高原西部引起异常反气旋环流和下沉运动，有利于高原西部气温偏高。研究结果显示，海洋的热惯性在"延长"南极涛动影响过程中起着重要的桥梁作用，可为青藏高原夏季气温预测提供科学依据。

外文标题：Influence of the Antarctic Oscillation in May on Temperature over the Western Tibetan Plateau in Boreal Summer

外文摘要：The Tibetan Plateau(TP),which is regarded as one of the most sensitive areas to climate war-ming in the world and the largest heat source of the Northern Hemisphere in summer,has been widely concerned.However,there are few studies on the relationship and mechanism between the Antarctic Os-cillation(AAO)and temperature in summer over the TP.Based on observation and reanalysis data such as CRU monthly temperature,NOAA global monthly sea surface temperature data(ERSSTv5),and AAO index from 1979 to 2020,this paper shows that there is a significant negative correlation between the tem-perature over the western TP in summer and the AAO in May through linear regression analysis and other methods.That is,when the AAO anomaly is positive in May,the temperature over the western TP in summer is abnormally high.The process of its influence is that when the AAO is in a positive phase,a"negative-positive-negative"meridional"Tripole"sea surface temperature mode appears in the mid to high latitudes of the southern Indian Ocean.This mode can last until summer,inducing the wind anomaly over the Indian Ocean in the zonal and vertical direction.The precipitation anomaly between the tropical west-ern Indian Ocean and the eastern Indian Ocean-Maritime Continent leads to a tropical"Dipole"rainfall mode.As a response,abnormal anticyclone circulation and downward movement appear over the western TP,which is conducive to the high temperature there.The research results in this paper indicate that the thermal inertia of the ocean plays an important role as a bridge in the process of prolonging the influence of the AAO,and it can provide scientific basis for the prediction of summer temperature over the TP.

外文关键词：

Antarctic Oscillation(AAO)Tibetan PlateauIndian Oceantemperature

作者：

张宇、李清泉、余锦华、沈新勇、毕淼、吴清源

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作者单位：

南京信息工程大学气象灾害教育部重点实验室/气候与环境变化国际合作联合实验室/气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044

中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081

南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海 519082

中国气象局气候资源经济转化重点开放实验室,重庆市气象科学研究所,重庆 401147

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关键词：

南极涛动青藏高原印度洋气温

基金：

青藏高原综合科学考察研究项目(第二次)国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金中国科学院战略性先导科技专项中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局创新发展专项

项目编号：

2019QZKK02082022YFE0136000U224220742105037XDA20100304CXFZ2022J039CXFZ2023J003

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.101701

气象

国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：2.337

ISSN：1000-0526

年,卷(期)：2024.50(3)

参考文献量38