首页|南海台风模式对台风利奇马快速增强预报能力研究

南海台风模式对台风利奇马快速增强预报能力研究

扫码查看
原文链接
  • 万方数据
  • 维普
针对台风利奇马(1909)，分析中国气象局南海台风模式(CMA-TRAMS)和欧洲中期天气预报中心高分辨率模式(HRES)对台风快速增强的业务预报情况，并基于CMA-TRAMS，从水平分辨率、初始场和边界条件、物理参数化方案等角度设计并开展数值敏感性试验。CMA-TRAMS和HRES对"利奇马"增强具有一定预报能力，但对快速增强的速度预报明显低于实况，均不能满足24 h和12 h快速增强标准，可达到6 h快速增强标准。CMA-TRAMS采用3 km分辨率对"利奇马"移动路径和强度变化的预报效果优于9 km分辨率，但未改进快速增强预报效果;采用3 km嵌套9 km的方案，模式对台风快速增强的预报效果明显提升。采用MRF边界层参数化方案对台风路径、强度、快速增强的预报效果总体优于YSU方案。海温参数化结合32层垂直分辨率的初始场和边界条件的方案明显提高了快速增强预报效果，预报快速增强的频次、增强的最大速度更接近实况。分析表明，海温参数化方案使海气温差增大，在短时间内对大气、海洋之间的热量输送和交换有明显影响，海洋向大气输送的感热通量和台风内核区的潜热通量加强使内核更暖湿、气压负倾向增大，是预报效果改进的主要原因。
Research on the Forecasting Capability of CMA-TRAMS Model for Rapid Intensification of Typhoon Lekima
In this paper,the operational forecasts of the rapid intensification(RI)of Typhoon Lekima(1909)by the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea of China Meteorological Ad-ministration(CMA-TRAMS)and the high-resolution products of the ECMWF atmospheric model(HRES)are analyzed.Numerical sensitivity experiments are designed and carried out from the perspec-tives of horizontal resolution,initial and boundary conditions,and physical parameterization schemes.It is found that CMA-TRAMS and HRES both can predict the strengthening of Tyhpoon Lekima to some ex-tent,but the predicted strengthening speed is obviously lower than observation.The two models both fail to meet the 24 h and 12 h RI standards,but can reach the 6 h RI standard.The experiment using 3 km horizontal resolution produces better forecasts of track and intensity of Lekima than that using 9 km reso-lution based on CMA-TRAMS,but it cannot improve the RI forecast.Nevertheless,the prediction of ty-phoon RI is significantly improved if the scheme has 3 km resolution nested to 9 km resolution.The experiment using the MRF boundary layer parameterization scheme generally performs better in forecasting typhoon track,intensity and RI than that using the YSU scheme.When the initial and boundary conditions with higher vertical resolution are used,combined with the sea surface temperature(SST)parameterization scheme,the RI forecast is obviously improved in the frequency and maximum speed.Analyses indicate that the SST parameterization scheme increases the difference between sea and air temperature,affecting the heat transport and exchange significantly.The enhancement of sensible heat flux from the ocean to the at-mosphere and the enhancement of latent heat flux in the inner-core section of typhoon increase the temper-ature and humidity and magnify the negative tendency of pressure.

tropical cyclonerapid intensification(RI)predictabilityCMA-TRAMSnumerical simula-tionSST parameterization scheme

黄燕燕、陈子通、冯业荣、张艳霞、徐道生、郑彬、靳卫卫

展开 >

中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州 510640

中海油能源发展股份有限公司安全环保分公司,天津 300452

台风 快速增强 可预报性 CMA-TRAMS 数值模拟 海温参数化方案

广东省基础与应用基础研究基金国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金广东省水利厅科技创新项目广东省气象局科学技术研究项目中国海洋石油集团有限公司科技项目

2022A151501187042275123U21422132022-01GRMC2021M01CNOOC-KJ135ZDXM35HFAQ2019-04

2024

10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.061601

气象
国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子：2.337
ISSN：1000-0526
年,卷(期)：2024.50(5)