Operational positioning and intensity estimation errors,as well as track and intensity forecast er-rors of typhoons over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea in 2022 are evaluated according to the"Regulations on Typhoon Operations and Services".The results show that in 2022,the positioning er-rors made by the official typhoon forecasting agencies displayed a negative correlation with the typhoon in-tensity grades.The mean error of position estimation made by the National Meteorological Centre(NMC),China Meteorological Administration(CMA),were the smallest at each typhoon intensity grade.In 2022,the mean error of position estimation(15.4 km)made by NMC was 21.8％lower than 19.7 km in 2021,and the mean absolute error of intensity estimation(1.3 m·s-1)made by NMC was slightly smaller than the value(1.4 m·s-1)in 2021.Relative to 2021,the mean errors of track forecast by sub-jective and objective forecasts in 2022 were generally reduced,but the mean absolute errors of intensity forecasts were generally increased.Track forecast skill scores by SSTC,CMA-TRAMS,and ECMWF-IFS were relatively high.Intensity forecast systematic biases by NCEP-GFS,JMA-GSM,CMA-TRAMS,and CMA-TYM were insignificant,while forecast skill scores by NCEP-GFS,HWRF,and CMA-TRAMS were relatively high.
关键词
台风/定位定强误差/路径预报误差/强度预报误差
Key words
typhoon/positioning and intensity estimation error/track forecast error/intensity forecast error
维普
万方数据