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一种基于双重检验逐步回归的台风生成预报方法

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基于CMA台风最佳路径和ECMWF细网格确定性数值模式资料,计算西北太平洋和南海台风生成期间16种环境因子的值,选出7个显著性因子,采用双重检验逐步回归方法建立台风生成预报方程.独立样本检验结果表明,利用回归方法预报的风速值作为台风生成判据,较直接使用模式预报的风速和气压作为台风生成判据的击中率更高.双重检验逐步回归的台风生成预报方法在2022年的台风预报业务中进行了试用,对2203号台风暹芭的生成预报检验结果显示,回归方法表现较好,可为预报员判别台风是否生成及生成时间提供参考.
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecasting Method Based on Double Test Stepwise Regression
Based on CMA best-track and ECMWF fine grid data,16 environmental variables during TC genesis are calculated and 7 prediction factors with significance are selected.The stepwise regression algo-rithm based on double test was used in establishing the TC genesis forecasting equation.The independent sample test results show that the hit rate of the wind speed predicted by the regression method is higher than that of the wind speed and pressure predicted by the numerical model.In 2022,the stepwise regres-sion algorithm based on double test was trialed in the TC genesis forecasting operation.The test results of generating forecast for Typhoon Chaba showed that the regression method has a good performance,and it can provide a reference for forecasters to judge whether and when the typhoon is generated.

tropical cyclone genesisstepwise regressiondouble test

董林、吕心艳、高拴柱、王皘

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国家气象中心,北京 100081

台风生成 逐步回归 双重检验

国家重点研发计划中国气象局创新发展专项国家自然科学基金项目

2023YFC3107902CXFZ2023J01542175016

2024

气象
国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.337
ISSN:1000-0526
年,卷(期):2024.50(7)
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