基于人体热量平衡模型的天津地区中暑气象风险预报技术研究

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中文摘要：基于2016-2020年天津市中暑门诊和住院就诊数据，利用广义相加模型和分布滞后非线性模型对气象要素与中暑就诊率的关系进行了分析，引入人体热量平衡模型和热舒适评价指标(PMV)，建立了本地化中暑气象风险预警指标。结果表明:天津地区中暑门诊人数和住院人数集中在每年6月下旬到8月上旬，5年中84％的中暑高发事件集中在6次连续过程中，其发生与当日和前一日气象条件相关性最高，当最高气温大于35℃时，中暑人数明显增多。男性比女性更易中暑，老人就诊率显著高于一般人群。中暑就诊率与平均气温、最高气温、相对湿度、太阳辐射强度呈正相关，与平均气温相关性最强，与风速呈负相关。引入人体热量平衡模型，显示PMV与中暑就诊率的相关性高于任何单一气象要素，PMV在评价中暑气象风险方面具备明显优势。并且，以PMV为关键指标形成预报方程。

外文标题：Research on Heatstroke Meteorological Risk Forecasting Technology Based on Human Heat Balance Model in Tianjin Region

外文摘要：Based on the outpatient and inpatient data of heatstroke in Tianjin from 2016 to 2020,a compara-tive analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and the heatstroke outpatient rate is con-ducted using the Generalized Additive Modeland Distributed Lag Nonlinear Model.By introducing the human heat balance model and predicted mean vote(PMV),a localized heatstroke meteorological risk warning index is established.The results show that the numbers of outpatient and inpatient cases of heat-stroke in Tianjin are concentrated from late June to early August each year,with 84％of the peak heatstroke days occurring in 6 continuous weather processes over the 5 years.The occurrence of heatstroke is most correlated with the meteorological conditions of that day and the previous day.There is a significant in-crease in heatstroke cases when the maximum temperature exceeds 35 ℃.Males are more susceptible to heatstroke than females,and the outpatient rate of the elderly is significantly higher than the general popu-lation.The heatstroke outpatient rate is positively correlated to average temperature,maximum tempera-ture,relative humidity,and solar radiation intensity,with the strongest correlation with average tempera-ture but a negative correlation with wind speed.Introducing the human heat balance model,PMV shows a higher correlation with the heatstroke outpatient rate than any single meteorological factor,indicating PMV has a clear advantage in evaluating heatstroke meteorological risk.A forecasting equation with PMV as the key indicator is developed.

外文关键词：

high temperatureheatstroke meteorological risk forecast and warninghuman heat balance modelpredicted mean vote(PMV)

作者：

张敏、蔡子颖、姚青、韩素芹、王晓佳、杨旭

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作者单位：

天津市健康气象交叉创新中心,天津 300074

天津市气象科学研究所,天津 300074

天津市环境气象中心,天津 300074

中国气象局-南开大学大气环境与健康研究联合实验室,天津 300074

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关键词：

高温中暑气象风险预报预警人体热量平衡模型热舒适评价指标(PMV)

基金：

国家自然科学基金面上项目中国气象局-南开大学大气环境与健康研究联合实验室运行维持项目开放基金项目中国气象局创新发展专项

项目编号：

42177465CXFZ2024P008CMANKU202307CXFZ2022P063

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.051701

气象

国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：2.337

ISSN：1000-0526

年,卷(期)：2024.50(7)