2023/2024年冬季北半球大气环流特征及对我国天气气候的影响

扫码查看

原文链接

万方数据
维普

中文摘要：利用国家气象信息中心整编发布的中国台站观测资料和全球大气再分析资料，分析了 2023/2024年冬季我国气候异常特征和可能成因。2023/2024年冬季，全国平均气温较常年同期偏高0。3℃，气温冷暖起伏大，总体呈现"前冬暖、后冬冷"的季节内变化特征。全国平均降水量较常年同期偏多19。8％，中东部大部地区降水偏多。东亚冬季风和西伯利亚高压强度接近常年，东亚槽偏弱。欧亚中高纬500 hPa位势高度场呈西低东高的分布形势，并具有显著的阶段性变化特征，2023年12月和2024年1月以纬向环流为主，2月转为异常经向型环流，有利于中高纬冷空气南下入侵我国。受赤道中东太平洋厄尔尼诺、热带印度洋和大西洋海温异常偏暖以及北太平洋年代际涛动负位相等因子的协同影响，冬季西太平洋副热带高压偏强、偏西，菲律宾及南海上空异常反气旋阶段性活跃，欧亚对流层高层出现沿西风急流传播的波列，有利于热带水汽向我国中东部输送，配合中高纬冷空气南下，导致该地区发生多次大范围雨雪冰冻天气过程。

外文标题：Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation in Northern Hemisphere in the 2023/2024 Winter and Its Impact on Weather and Climate of China

外文摘要：Based on the observational datasets from National Meteorological Information Centre,and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,characteristics of spatio-temporal distribution of climate anomalies in the winter of 2023/2024 and possible causes and mechanisms are analyzed.During the 2023/2024 winter,aver-age temperature in China was 0.3℃ higher than climatology.The fluctuation of temperature was signifi-cant,with an intra-seasonal variation feature of being warmer in the early winter but colder in the late win-ter.Average precipitation was more than normal by 19.8％,and most parts of central and eastern China received more precipitation above normal.The power of East Asian winter monsoon and the intensity of Siberian high were near the normal values,and the East Asian trough was in a weakened condition.500 hPa geopotential height in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia was low in the west but high in the east,featured with significant intra-seasonal fluctuation.Zonal atmospheric circulation prevailed in December 2023 and January 2024,and then it turned into abnormal meridional patterns in February 2024,which was favorable for the southward invasion of cold air in middle and high latitudes into China.In response to the synergistic effect of El Nino mature phase,warm tropical Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean,cold phase of Pacific interdecadal oscillation,an anomalous anticyclone was formed in the western North Pacific,being active over the Philippines and the South China Sea in stages.Western Pacific subtropical high intensified and extended westward.A Rossby wave train propagated along westerly jet in the upper troposphere,which was beneficial for the water vapor transport into central and eastern China.Finally,the confluence of this warm-moist air and the southward cold air from the middle and high latitudes led to the frequent snow and rain processes in the central and eastern parts of China.

外文关键词：

East Asian winter monsooncold airEl Ninowestern Pacific subtropical highintra-seasonal variation

作者：

章大全、刘芸芸

展开 >

作者单位：

中国气象局气候研究重点开放实验室,国家气候中心,北京 100081

南京信息工程大学气象灾害预报预警与评估协同创新中心,南京 210044

关键词：

东亚冬季风冷空气厄尔尼诺西太平洋副热带高压季节内变化

基金：

国家自然科学基金项目国家自然科学基金项目中国气象局创新发展专项中国气象局创新发展专项安徽省自然科学基金江淮气象联合基金项目贵州新气象科技有限责任公司"揭榜挂帅"项目中国长江电力股份有限公司科研项目中国气象局智能网格气候预测创新团队

项目编号：

4217504741975091CXFZ2024J004CXFZ2024J0482208085UQ102024-N692423020054CMA2024QN06

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2024.052201

气象

国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：2.337

ISSN：1000-0526

年,卷(期)：2024.50(7)