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淮河流域骤旱时空分布特征分析

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淮河流域位于我国南北气候交界带,地理环境复杂,提升对淮河流域骤旱的认识对于保障农业生产具有重要意义。文章基于ERA5、ERA5-LAND、GLDAS 2。1和GLEAM 3。8a四套土壤湿度资料分析了2000-2020年淮河流域骤旱的时空分布特征及资料不确定性。针对全年的骤旱统计结果表明:ERA5的骤旱平均发生次数整体偏多,空间分布相对均匀,其余三套资料呈北少南多的空间分布;骤旱平均历时与骤旱发生次数的空间分布大致相反;骤旱平均发生次数决定了骤旱发生率的空间分布;骤旱发生次数的年际变化较大,且具有较大的资料不确定性。淮河流域骤旱多发于作物生长季(4-9月),聚焦作物生长季,骤旱平均发生次数的空间分布与全年结果相似;骤旱平均历时相对全年结果偏短。淮河流域南部地区在作物生长季内骤旱多发,其年际趋势同样具有较大的资料不确定性。
Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics During Flash Droughts in the Huaihe River Basin
The Huaihe River Basin(HRB),situated in the transitional area between northern and southern climate zones of China,is characterized by a complex geographical environment.Understanding flash droughts in the HRB is crucial for ensuring agricultural production.This study examines the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and data uncertainty of flash droughts in the HRB from 2000 to 2020 using four sets of soil moisture data:ERA5,ERA5-LAND,GLDAS 2.1 and GLEAM 3.8a.The annual flash drought statistics show that the average occurrence count of flash droughts is generally higher in the ERA5 dataset,with a relatively uniform spatial distribution,while the results of the other three datasets exhibit a spatial distribution pattern of fewer occurrences in the north and more in the south.The average duration of flash droughts exhibits an approximately opposite distribution to their occurrence count distribution.The average occurrence count of flash droughts determines the spatial distribution of the occurrence fre-quency of flash droughts.Additionally,there is significant interannual variability in the occurrence count of flash droughts with considerable data uncertainty.Flash droughts in the HRB occur frequently during the crop growing seasons(April to September).Focusing on the crop growing seasons,the spatial distri-bution of the average occurrence count of flash droughts is similar to that of the annual results.However,the average duration of flash droughts tends to be shorter compared to the annual results.The southern re-gion of the HRB experiences more flash droughts during the crop growing seasons,and their interannual trends also exhibit significant data uncertainty.

Huaihe River Basin(HRB)flash droughtsoil moisturespatial and temporal distribtution characteristicdata uncertainty

陈悦、段春锋、李清泉、王朋岭、卢燕宇、霍彦峰

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安徽省气象科学研究所/安徽省大气科学与卫星遥感重点实验室,合肥 230031

中国气象局淮河流域典型农田生态气象野外科学试验基地/寿县国家气候观象台,安徽寿县 232200

中国气象局武汉暴雨研究所,中国气象局流域强降水重点开放实验室/暴雨监测预警湖北省重点实验室,武汉 430205

国家气候中心,中国气象局气候预测研究重点开放实验室,北京 100081

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淮河流域 骤旱 土壤湿度 时空分布特征 资料不确定性

2024

气象
国家气象中心

气象

CSTPCD北大核心
影响因子:2.337
ISSN:1000-0526
年,卷(期):2024.50(12)