RCPs情景下贵州省气候变化预估分析
Projected Climate Change in Guizhou under RCPs Scenarios
张娇艳 1李扬 2吴战平 3张东海 3李忠燕3
作者信息
- 1. 贵州省气候中心,贵阳550002;贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵阳550002
- 2. 贵州省贵阳市气象局,贵阳550001
- 3. 贵州省气候中心,贵阳550002
- 折叠
摘要
使用国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段CMIP5的模式结果,在不同RCP情景下对贵州省未来气温、降水进行了预估.通过对气温、降水的模拟值和实测值的标准化均方根误差的评估得知,模式对贵州省气温的模拟能力较强,对降水的模拟能力相对较差.预估结果表明:未来在RCP8.5、RCP4.5和RCP2.6情景下贵州省气温均是明显的上升趋势,降水小幅度增加,增温(增湿)速率分别为0.5℃/10a(1.0％/10a)、0.2℃/10a(0.9％/10a)和0.1℃/10a(0.6％/10a),到了21世纪末期相对于基准期气温(降水)分别增加4.5℃(5.2％)、2.3℃(5.4％)和1.3℃(4.2％).空间分布总体上增温幅度从西南向东北逐渐变大,而降水相对于基准期变化的区域性差异较大.总体来说,21世纪温室气体浓度越高,增温增湿速率越快.
Abstract
The changing trends of temperature and precipitation for the 21st century over Guizhou under RCPs scenarios are analyzed using the multi-model dataset of World Climate Research Programme's Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5.The results show a relatively good (poor) performance of temperature (precipitation) simulation in Guizhou based on the normalized root mean square error (NRMSE).It is found that the projected temperature (precipitation) shows a warmer (wetter) trend of 0.5 ℃/10a (1.0％/10a),0.2 ℃/10a (0.9％/10),and 0.1 ℃/10a (0.6％/10a),respectively,in Guizhou under the scenarios of RCP8.5,RCP4.5,and RCP2.6,with an increase of 4.5 ℃ (5.2％),2.3 ℃ (5.4％),and 1.3 ℃ (4.2％) relative to the reference period in the end of the 21st century.From the perspective of the spatial distribution,the increase of annual temperature relative to the reference period at the end of the 21st century gradually grows up from southwest to northeast,while precipitation has different change for different scenarios and areas.Overall,the higher the greenhouse gas concentration in the 21st century,the faster the rate of warming and wetting.
关键词
CMIP5/RCP情景/气候变化预估/气温变化/降水变化Key words
CMIP5/RCPs scenario/projected climate change/temperature change/precipitation change引用本文复制引用
基金项目
中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(2013031)
贵州省气象局青年科技基金资助项目(黔气科合QN[2016]08号)
出版年
2017
NETL
NSTL
维普
万方数据