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山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征

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根据1971-2013年山东省14个气象站点的逐日最高和最低气温资料,计算了6个极端气温指数,采用线性倾向率、MK突变检验、EEMD、反距离加权插值和相关分析等方法对山东省极端气温事件的时空变化特征及其与西太平洋副高环流变化的关系进行了分析.结果表明:①冷暖指数变化趋势的方向和大小均表现出明显的不对称性,暖(冷)指数表现为上升(下降)趋势显著.冷暖指数表现出准2年和准5~7年的年际尺度波动,准10~15年和准20~28年的年代际尺度波动.②暖(冷)指数均表现为全区一致的增加(减少)趋势;除高温日数外,倾向率的空间分布总体上表现出东部和中部地区变化趋势较大,西部地区变化趋势较小.③极端气温事件的突变与气温突变具有较好的同步性,均在20世纪80年代末90年代初,表明极端气温指数的变化与区域性增暖有密切联系.④极端气温事件(除高温日数)的变化深受西太平洋副高变化的影响,西伸脊点、强度和面积指数变化的影响尤其显著.
Temporal-Spatial Variation Characteristics of Extreme Temperature Events in Shandong Province
Based on the daily maximum temperature,daily minimum temperature at 14 meteorological stations in Shandong province from 1971 to 2013,six extreme temperature indexes are calculated.The methods of the linear trend rate,M-K mutation,EEMD,inverse distance weight interpolation,and correlation analysis are used to study the characteristics of temporal and spatial variations of the extreme temperature events over Shandong Province and its relationship with the change of the Western Pacific Subtropical High circulation.The results show that,(1) the size and direction of the trend of cold and warm indexes show obvious asymmetry.Warm indexes show obvious increasing trend,while cold indexes show obvious decreasing trend.The cold and warm indexes show an inter-annual scale fluctuation of quasi-20 years and 5 to 7 years,as well as the inter-decadal scale fluctuation of quasi-10 to 15 years and 20 to 28 years.(2) The warm (cold) indexes show a consistent increasing (decreasing) trend over the study area.The variation trend of the eastern and central region is larger and that of the western region is smaller on the whole,except in the high temperature days.(3) The abrupt changes of extreme temperature indexes and temperature have good synchronicity,both in the late 1980s and the early 1990s,which suggests that the change of extreme temperature index is closely linked to regional warming.(4) The changes of the extreme temperature events (with the exception of high temperature days) are deeply affected by the changes of the Western Pacific Subtropical High,especially the western end of the ridge,strength and area index.

extreme temperaturetemporal-spatial variation characteristicmutation analysisperiod analysisWestern Pacific Subtropical HighShandong province

于凤硕、廉丽姝、初翠翠

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曲阜师范大学地理与旅游学院,日照276826

极端气温 时空变化特征 突变分析 周期分析 西太平洋副高 山东省

山东省自然科学基金

ZR2015DL001

2017

气象科技
中国气象科学研究院 北京市气象局 中国气象局大气探测技术中心 国家卫星气象中心 国家气象信息中心

气象科技

CSTPCD
影响因子:1.154
ISSN:1671-6345
年,卷(期):2017.45(5)
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