一种飞机空中积冰潜势诊断指数与检验评估
An Aircraft Icing Potential Algorithm and Its Evaluation
周琦浩 1施钰鲲 1王子祎 1孙俊颖 1蒋瑜1
作者信息
- 1. 中国商用飞机有限责任公司民用飞机试飞中心,上海 201324
- 折叠
摘要
飞机积冰是影响飞行安全的重要危险天气,准确的积冰诊断对民航运行与安全具有重大意义,特别是对国产大飞机适航取证具有重要作用.本文参考改进的CIP(Current Icing Potential)指数,使用垂直速度和云中液态水含量对积冰潜势诊断指数进行优化得到SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)指数,该指数直接基于大气层结资料给出较为准确地飞机积冰潜势,具有命中率高、实用性强的特点.用2021年2月28 日至12月31日民航航空器报告对原CIP指数和SCIP指数进行对比验证评估,发现相比于原CIP指数,SCIP指数具有更优异的ROC曲线(Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve)和 TSS 评分(True Skill Score).但是对于不同程度的积冰,原 CIP 指数和SCIP指数均表现出较一致诊断效果,表明SCIP指数对诊断飞机积冰潜势具有重要作用,但无法判断积冰强度.根据2020年3月16日陕西区域飞机结冰个例验证表明增加垂直速度和云中液态水含量的影响对飞机积冰的描述更加细致,对提升积冰潜势诊断效果具有重要意义.
Abstract
Aircraft icing is an important and dangerous weather condition that affects flight safety.Accurate diagnosis of aircraft icing is of great significance to the operation and safety of civil aviation,especially with the advancement of airworthiness certification of domestic large aircraft;the diagnosis of aircraft icing potential attracts the attention of many departments such as civil aviation and meteorology.In this paper,referring to the improved CIP(Current Icing Potential)index,the fuzzy logic method is used to increase the correlation between the vertical velocity and the liquid water content in the cloud affecting aircraft icing,and optimize the aircraft icing potential equation to obtain the SCIP(Simplified Current Icing Potential)index.The index gives a relatively accurate aircraft icing potential directly based on atmospheric layer data and has the characteristics of a high hit rate and strong practicability in the diagnosis of aircraft icing.The aircraft icing potential diagnostic indexes are compared and validated,using the China Civil Aviation Aircraft reports from 28 February 2021 to 31 December 2021.The icing potential index is applied to reanalysis data to simulate historical icing events.Compared with the improved CIP index,the SCIP index shows better Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(ROC)and True Skill Score(TSS).The results also show that increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential diagnosis algorithm are crucial to avoid the warning of air alarms.However,for different degrees of ice accumulation,the improved CIP index and SCIP index show a consistent diagnostic effect,indicating that the SCIP index plays an important role in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential but cannot judge the ice accumulation intensity.In order to further evaluate the influence of increasing vertical velocity and cloud liquid water content in the aircraft ice accumulation potential index,reanalysis data are used to calculate the aircraft ice accumulation potential of an individual case of aircraft ice formation in Shaanxi Province on 16 March 2020,indicating that increased upward vertical velocity and larger cloud liquid water content provide better conditions for aircraft ice accumulation under the condition of low cloud top temperature.The SCIP index makes up for the shortcomings of the improved CIP algorithm in the diagnosis of aircraft ice accumulation potential under this weather condition,indicating that the increase of these two factors is of great significance to improve the diagnosis effect of ice accumulation potential.
关键词
飞机积冰/模糊逻辑/积冰潜势诊断Key words
aircraft icing/fuzzy logic/ice accumulation potential引用本文复制引用
出版年
2024
NETL
NSTL
万方数据