Test of rainstorm in Huangshan area during the ultra-long Meiyu period in 2020 based on multi-model
In order to do a good job in meteorological service of Huangshan region rainstorms in Meiyu period.This paper tests the overall performance of rainstorm forecast in the ultra-long Meiyu period in Huangshan region in 2020 was tested by using two global models EC-thin,CMA-GFS and one regional model(CMA-SH9)commonly used in local forecasting business.The results show that EC thin has a significantly stronger predictive ability for weather systems than CMA-GFS,but with the increase of forecast time,the forecast error will increase.CMA-SH9 has the best prediction effect on precipitation intensity,followed by EC thin,and CMA-GFS has the worst.The 24-hour forecasting ability of the three models is similar and can be referenced simultaneously.Extended effectiveness at any time,enhancing the reference value of CMA-SH9.The three models have relatively small predictions for precipitation precipitation areas,and the 24-hour time series can refer to both EC thin and CMA-SH9.The two models mainly adjust longitudinally with the extension of time series,with most of them leaning south or north.The three models have a certain correction ability for deviation from the prediction of precipitation areas near the time effect.
rainstorms in Meiyu periodmodel verificationforecast deviation
万方数据
维普
