摘要
文章应用MICAPS资料、ERA5再分析资料和新一代雷达资料对2023-07-18发生在日喀则市桑珠孜区一次致灾强对流过程进行了分析.结果表明:此次过程具有降水强度大、局地性强、对流性强等特点,南亚高压呈西部型为此次过程提供了有利的高空辐散条件,高原低涡夜间增强为夜间对流的产生提供了动力辐合条件;对流发生前,近地面和中层充沛的水汽、高的大气温度直减率和较高的近地面温度利于对流发生;对流云团回波质心低、暖云降水特征明显直接导致了短时强降水;欧洲中心数值预报模式对此次对流预报效果较差.
Abstract
The article applies MICAPS data,ERA5 reanalysis data and new generation radar data to analyze a disaster causing severe convective process that occurred in Sangzhizi District,Shigatse City on July 18,2023.The results show that this process has the characteristics of high precipitation intensity,strong locality and convection.The western type of South Asian high press provides favorable high-altitude divergence conditions for this process,and the nighttime enhancement of plateau low vortex provides dynamic convergence conditions for nighttime convective generation.Before convection occurs,abundant water vapor near the surface and middle layer,high lapse rate of atmospheric temperature and high near-surface temperature are conducive to convective occurrence.The low echo centroid of convective cloud,and the obvious characteristics of warm cloud precipitation directly leads to short-term heavy precipitation.The European Central Numerical prediction Model has poor performance in predicting the convection.
万方数据