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短期气象灾害风险定量化预估关键技术和多场景应用研究

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为了给决策者和公众提供灾害发生前预警和应对的科学依据,文章通过定量化预估关键技术构建短期气象灾害模型,并与实际发生的气象灾害事件对比,结果显示拟合度和准确度均在0.95以上,预测结果与实际结果偏差均小于0.05%,表明该模型可用于短期气象灾害风险评估.通过合理利用短期气象灾害风险定量化预估关键技术和多场景应用研究,可以提高灾害预警和应对的准确性和效率,从而保护人民生命财产安全.
Research on key technologies and multi-scenario application of quantitative prediction of short-term meteorological disaster risk
In order to provide decision-makers and the public with scientific basis for early warning and response before disasters occur,this article constructs a short-term meteorological disaster model through quantitative estimation of key technologies,and compares it with actual meteorological disaster events.The results show that the fitting and accuracy are both above 0.95,and the deviation between the predicted and actual results is less than 0.05%,indicating that the model can be used for short-term meteorological disaster risk assessment.By making reasonable use of key technologies for quantifying short-term meteorological disaster risks and conducting research on multi scenario applications,the accuracy and efficiency of disaster warning and response can be improved,thereby protecting people's lives and property safety.

short-term meteorological disasterquantitative risk assessmentkey technologymulti-scenario application

姜涛、何彬、廖水和、李少远

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广东省连南瑶族自摇县气象局,连南 511500

广东省阳山县气象局,阳山 513138

广东省连州市气象局,连州 513400

短期气象灾害 风险定量化评估 关键技术 多场景应用

2024

气象水文海洋仪器
中国仪器仪表学会 气象水文海洋仪器分会 长春气象仪器研究所

气象水文海洋仪器

影响因子:0.307
ISSN:1006-009X
年,卷(期):2024.41(5)