Barnes filtering analysis in the process of the typhoon remote rainstorm
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the NWP model for the remote rainstorm process of typhoon,this paper uses Barnes filtering method to separate the ECMWF model from large-scale and medium-sized systems,and analyzes the factors in each scale system where the model prediction is weak,in combination with the extremely heavy rainstorm process caused by typhoon Mangkhut in the Yangtze River Delta from September 16,2018.The results show that the circulation situation predicted by the ECMWF model is close to the actual situation,and the water vapor transport conditions are more conducive to the rainstorm than the actual situation,and the rainstorm is still missed,which indicates that weak cold air is the main reason for the model to miss the remote rainstorm of the typhoon.The infiltration of meso-a scale low pressure and cold air in the near surface layer is the direct cause of local heavy rainstorm and extremely heavy rainstorm.
万方数据
维普
