Diagnosis and forecast deviation analysis of a typhoon process affecting Tonghua in autumn
The article uses conventional observation data to diagnose and analyze the northward typhoon"Meihua".The results show that the suction effect of the high-altitude jet provides conditions for large-scale water vapor uplift,while the blocking effect of the subtropical high pressure leads to prolonged precipitation duration.In the first 24 hours,the inverted trough remained stable with little movement,triggering a mesoscale system and generating a train effect.The convergence of warm and humid shear and low-level jet stream exit zones was the direct source of power,coupled with mountain terrain forcing,resulting in strong convergence and uplift of warm and humid air.During this stage,water vapor came from the typhoon inverted trough.In the next 24 hours,"Meihua"moved into the westerly trough,and the intrusion of cold air was conducive to the formation of oblique pressure fronts,strengthening the large-scale dynamic uplift effect.At this stage,the water vapor came from Typhoon Nanmadu No.14.The EC model has a certain indicative significance for heavy precipitation,but its stability is poor.
万方数据
维普
