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新时代中国生育政策迭代研究——基于倡议联盟框架的分析

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人口问题是"国之大者",切实可行的生育政策是解决人口问题的一大重要举措.在厘清新时代中国生育政策的逻辑走向的基础上,尝试运用倡议联盟框架揭示并解释由单独二孩到全面二孩再到全面三孩政策迭代变迁的过程,从而助推生育政策的进一步优化升级.研究发现,生育政策迭代变迁是政策子系统、外部事件、相对稳定变量、政策学习、信念体系等多方面共同作用的结果.其中,深层内核信念是促进生育政策稳定迭代变迁的根本原因,政策学习是引发生育政策迭代变迁的重要机制,外部事件为生育政策迭代变迁提供直接动力.此外,印证倡议政策联盟分析中国公共政策问题适切性的同时,也需要对框架体系适当修正,构建本土化的倡议联盟框架,形塑具有中国特色的公共政策话语体系.
China's Fertility Policy in the New Era:Based on the Advocacy Coalition Framework
The population problem is the major issue of a country,and proper fertility policy is an important measure to solve the population problem.On the basis of clarifying the trend of China's fertility policy in the new era,this paper tries to use the advocacy coalition framework to reveal and explain the iterative process from the selective two-child policy to the comprehensive two-child policy and to the comprehensive three-child policy,so as to boost the further optimization and upgrading of the fertility policy.It is found that the iterative change of fertility policy is the result of policy subsystem,external events,relatively stable variables,policy learning and belief system;the underlying belief is the primary cause for the stable iterative change of the fertility policy;the policy learning is an important mechanism to trigger the iterative change of the fertility policy;and external events provide direct impetus for the iterative change of the fertility policy.In addition,while verifying that it is appropriate to use the advocacy coalition framework to analyze China's public policy issues,it is also necessary to properly revise the framework,build a localized advocacy alliance framework,and shape a public policy discourse system with Chinese characteristics.

advocacy coalition frameworkfertility policypolicy iteration

刘聪、尘兴邦

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北京航空航天大学公共管理学院,北京 100191

倡议联盟框架 生育政策 政策迭代

2024

前沿
内蒙古自治区社会科学联合会

前沿

CHSSCD
影响因子:0.25
ISSN:1009-8267
年,卷(期):2024.(1)
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