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基于时序模型对黄河水沙通量变化的研究

Research on Changes in Water and Sediment Flux in the Yellow River Based on Time Series Model

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根据2023年"高教社杯"全国大学生数学建模竞赛E题提供的黄河某水文站近6年的历史监测数据,对水沙通量变化规律进行研究.首先,基于年均比值关系和Pearson相关系数探讨了含沙量与水位、流量和时间的关系,结合统计方法估算年总排水量、年总排沙量;其次,以年、月为单位时间粒度分别对水沙通量的突变性、季节性和周期性进行探索性分析,进一步检验数据服从正态分布,以天为单位时间粒度,基于ARIMA时序模型对水沙通量变化规律进行拟合;考虑到"调水调沙"工程对水沙通量变化存在一定的影响,在前者的基础上,以月为单位时间粒度,建立SARIMA季节性时序模型,并预测未来2年水沙通量的变化趋势.实验结果表明,模型拟合效果显著,且"调水调沙"工程对水沙通量的影响呈明显的一致性.
Based on the historical monitoring data of a hydrological station on the Yellow River in the past 6 years provided by Question E of the 2023"Higher Education Society Cup"National College Student Mathematical Modeling Competition,the change patterns of water and sediment flux were studied.First,based on the annual average ratio relationship and Pearson correlation coefficient,the relationship between sediment content and water level,flow and time was discussed,and statistical methods were used to estimate the annual total drainage volume and annual total sediment discharge volume;Secondly,an exploratory analysis was conducted on the mutation,seasonality and periodicity of water and sediment fluxes with year and month as time granularity,respectively,to further test that the data obeys the normal distribution,and with days as time granularity,the ARIMA time series model was used to simulate the changing pattern of combined water and sediment flux;taking into account that the"water and sediment regulation"project has a certain impact on water and sediment flux changes,based on the former,the SARIMA seasonal time series model was established with monthly time granularity,and the change trends in water and sediment flux were predicted in the next two years.Experimental results show that the model fitting effect is significant,and the impact of the"water and sediment regulation"project on water and sediment fluxes is obviously consistent.

water and sediment fluxexploratory analysisARIMASARIMAwater and sediment regulation

陈培辉、郑东荣、吴志锐

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汕尾职业技术学院,广东汕尾 516600

广州新华学院,广东东莞 523133

水沙通量 探索性分析 ARIMA SARIMA 调水调沙

2022年广东省普通高校青年创新人才类项目2020年度广东省普通高校创新团队项目2022年度广东省普通高校重点科研平台和项目2023年度汕尾职业技术学院校级科研课题

2022KQNCX2492020KCXTD0452022CTPT023SWKT23-004

2024

10.3969/j.issn.1003-6970.2024.05.004

软件
中国电子学会 天津电子学会

软件

影响因子：1.51
ISSN：1003-6970
年,卷(期)：2024.45(5)