摘要
伴随百年变局与中美博弈确定性的不断深化,不确定性派生的认知倾向加剧了国际与地区的风险态势.岸田文雄执政以来的日本安全保障政策延承并调适了后安倍时代的战略惯性与施策取向,但同时日本的安全认知张力与安全战略阻力亦不断积聚.在此背景下,明晰日本安全保障政策的调整逻辑是促进中日关系发展、维护地区安全稳定的应有之义.归因理论旨在从认知角度推论国家行为的因果关系,基于不确定性归因理论分析框架梳理日本安全保障政策的历史演进发现:在竞争性为主的竞合情境这一前置变量下,日本安全保障政策演进脉络的主动性、综合性、灵活性特点所关涉的"意图—能力""能力—利益""决心—其他"自变量相互作用关系构成了其内部驱动力,并在与不确定性作用下的宏观、微观、特殊决策认知结构等外部调节变量的系统效应中,共同塑造了岸田执政后日本安全保障政策动向的调整机制.
Abstract
With the deepening of the centennial changes and the increasing certainty of the Sino-US strategic competition,the cognitive tendency derived from uncertainty has intensified the international and regional risk situation.Since Fumio Kishida took office,Japan's security policy has inherited and adjusted the strategic inertia and policy orientation from the post-Abe era.But at the same time,Japan's security cognitive tension and strategic resistance have also continued to accumulate.Against this backdrop,it is essential to clarify the adjustment logic of Japan's security policy,thereby promoting the development of Sino-Japanese relations and maintaining regional security stability.The attribution theory aims to infer the causal relationships of national behavior from a cognitive perspective.Based on the analytical framework of uncertainty attribution theory,the proactive,comprehensive and flexible characteristics of Japan's security policy evolution in the predominantly competitive"competition-cooperation"scenario are found to be constituted by the interactive relationships among the"intention-capability","capability-interest"and"determination-other"variables,which serve as the internal driving forces.Furthermore,the systemic effects of external moderating variables such as macro,micro and specific decision-making cognitive structures under the influence of uncertainty,jointly shape the adjustment mechanism of Japan's security policy trend after Kishida took office.
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