In recent years,the"U.S.-Japan plus"small multilateral cooperation,like U.S.-Japan-India-Australia,U.S.-Japan-ROK and U.S.-Japan-Philippine,has shown a tendency of alliance development.Therefore,based on the interpretation of the concepts of small multilateralism,multilateralism and alliance,this paper constructs an analytical framework composed of four reference indicators,including cooperation issues,mechanism construction,external threats and security commitments,then analyzes the characteristics of the trend of alliance of"U.S.-Japan plus"small multilateral cooperation,and believes that it is in a developing period that the trend towards alliance is strengthening.On the other side,considering the differences in threat perceptions,the lack of U.S.strength,domestic political changes and contradictions in bilateral relations,it is difficult for the alliance of"U.S.-Japan plus"mini-multilateral cooperation to rise from alliance formation to alliance.Although the alliance of"US-Japan plus"mini-multilateral cooperation is conducive to its internal members seeking"selfish interests",it has more negative effects on the outside:the Asia-Pacific cooperation and governance are seriously affected,the regional security situation is tense,the risk of conflict is increasing,the international community is divided and the competition among major powers is intensified.In the future,the depth of the alliance trend of"U.S.-Japan plus"small multilateral cooperation will be inconsistent,and there is a greater probability of differentiation,reorganization and mutual intertwining,with a strong color of"issue alliance".
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NSTL
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