The evolution of Chinese-Japanese relations can be categorized into four distinct cycles:a super-long cycle of 60 years,a long cycle of 27-30 years,a medium cycle of approximately 20 years,and a short cycle of about 10 years.Since the end of World War Ⅱ,Japan's China policy and Chinese-Japanese relations have undergone three major long-cycle transformations.The first long cycle,spanning from 1945 to 1972,marked an abnormal period in Chinese-Japanese relations.The second long cycle,from 1972 to 2000,represented a phase of cooperative development following the normalization of diplomatic relations.The third long cycle,beginning in 2000 and continuing to the present,has been characterized by rising political and security tensions.Currently,Chinese-Japanese relations are entering the concluding phase of the third long cycle.By 2032,Japan is expected to formulate a new 10-year national security strategy,potentially ushering in the fourth long cycle of postwar Chinese-Japanese relations.The primary drivers of this transformation include domestic political struggles within Japan and external factors,particularly the influence of the United States.Whether the next long cycle will be defined by strategic confrontation or relative improvement in Chinese-Japanese relations will depend on the outcome of internal debates within Japan's political establishment and conservative parties,especially regarding the handling of the Taiwan issue and territorial disputes over the Diaoyu Islands.
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