摘要
日本作为我国重要的贸易伙伴国,出于巩固和维持自身在高尖端技术领域的优势地位、加强供应链韧性以及与美国等国家形成经济安全同盟等原因,于 2023 年 5 月 23 日宣布新增 23 项尖端半导体生产设备的出口管制并于 7 月 23 日正式实施.面对以国家安全为名的各类贸易遏制愈演愈烈,中国于 2023 年 7 月 3 日宣布对镓、锗相关物项实施出口管制并于 8 月 1 日正式实施.中日两国此次在出口管制领域的重要调整无疑会极大地影响全球半导体供应链的稳定性,对中日两国及相关国家的经济与贸易产生较大影响.本文运用GTAP模型将世界分为 8 个地区、产业分为 8 类部门,将GTAP10 数据库动态递归到 2023 年,对中日出口管制的经济效应进行了模拟分析.研究结果显示,日本对华半导体出口管制对中日两国的GDP、社会福利和进出口均会造成损害,中国的反制措施并不能扭转日本对华出口管制的负面冲击,反而将进一步加大两国福利损失,且在世界其他地区中,韩国福利受损最为严重;中日出口管制将产生贸易转移效应,韩国、中国台湾以及东盟作为主要受益地区,其出口将得以大幅提升.中国有必要从促进自主创新、拓展半导体制造业出口市场以及广泛寻求半导体制造关键设备的替代品等方面积极应对.
Abstract
As an important trading partner of our country,Japan,in order to consolidate and maintain its dominant position in the field of high-tech and strengthen the resilience of the supply chain with the U.S.and other countries to form an economic security alliance,announced on May 23,2023,the addition of 23 new items of cutting-edge semiconductor production equipment for export control and July 23,officially implemented.On July 3,2023,China announced export controls on gallium and germanium-related items in the face of increasing trade curbs in the name of national security,officially implemented on August 1.This important adjustment between Japan and China in the field of export controlcould significantly impact the stability of the global semiconductor supply chain and will have a large impact on the economy and trade between China,Japan and related countries.In this paper,with the GTAP model is used to divide the world into 8 regions and industries into 8 types of sectors,and the GTAP10 database is dynamically recursive to 2023,a simulation analysis of the economic effects of export controls in China and Japan was carried out.The results show that Japan's semiconductor export control on China will cause damage to the GDP,social welfare,import and export of China and Japan,and China's countermeasures can not reverse the negative impact of Japan's export control on China and will further increase the loss of welfare of the two countries,and in the rest of the world,South Korea's welfare will been through the most serious damage.At the same time,export control of Japan and China will produce trade diversion effects,and as the main beneficiary region——South Korea,China,Chinese Taiwan,and ASEAN,their exports will be able to significantly increase.It is necessary for China to actively respond to these by promoting independent innovation,expanding the export market for semiconductor manufacturing,and widely seeking substitutes for key semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(19BGJ019)
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD178)
国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BJY009)
河北省教育厅人文社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(2021)(ZD202112)
河北大学社会科学培育项目(2023HPY001)
NETL
NSTL
万方数据