Prediction and Mitigation Measures for Changes in Arable Land Resources in a Certain Area of Hainan Province
The cultivated land pressure index model and grey GM(1,1)prediction model were used to analyze the degree of cultivated land resources shortage in a certain area of Hainan Province.and to predict the development trend of cultivated land resources from 2023 to 2032.The results show that from 2013 to 2022,the cultivated land area,total grain yield,grain sowing area,grain self-sufficiency rate,and multiple cropping index in the study area all showed a downward trend.The pressure index of cultivated land gradually increased,and the degree of shortage of cultivated land resources increased year by year;The grade ratio test values and C values of cultivated land area,grain sown area,total grain yield,and multiple cropping index all conform to the row grey GM(1,1)prediction model.From 2023 to 2032,they will continue to decline with the grain sown area,total grain yield,and multiple cropping index will still decrease by more than 50%on the existing basis.Targeted mitigation measures were proposed in hopes of providing reference for the formulation and implementation of local cultivated land protection policies.
cultivated land pressure index modelGrey GM(1,1)prediction modelcultivated land resourcesmitigation measures
万方数据
维普
