闪电资料同化对河南郑州"7.20"特大暴雨预报的影响

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国家科技期刊平台
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中文摘要：研究了闪电资料同化对2021年7月20日河南郑州特大暴雨短临预报的影响.利用天气研究与预报(WRF)模式的三维变分(3DVAR)数据同化系统(WRFDA),开展了两组循环同化试验:(1)同化地面和探空常规观测资料(包括风速、风向、温度和气压)的试验(CONV);(2)同化常规观测资料和由闪电资料反演的伪相对湿度的试验(LGDA),并与无资料同化的试验(NoDA)进行对比.结果表明,CONV的分析场和NoDA都未能模拟出强对流系统的回波结构,但由于LGDA增加了对整层大气的湿度场的调整,其分析场在闪电发生位置处的水凝物增量较大,相对湿度和反射率的分布情况与中国全球大气再分析资料(CRA)及雷达反射率观测值最接近.降水预报方面,LGDA显著提高了大暴雨雨带(6h累积降水量≥50 mm)和强降水中心(6h累积降水量≥200 mm)位置和强度的预报效果,对本次强降水过程的预报起到了积极作用,尤其是对前3h的降水预报.

外文标题：Impact of Lightning Data Assimilation on Forecasting the"7.20"Extreme Heavy Rainfall in Zhengzhou,Henan Province

外文摘要：This study evaluates the impact of lightning data assimilation(DA)on short-term forecasts of an extremely heavy rainfall event that occurred in Zhengzhou,Henan Province on July 20,2021.Based on the Weather Research and Forecast(WRF)three-dimensional variational(3DVAR)data assimilation system(WRFDA),two cycling DA experiments were designed:one test(CONV)assimilated ground and sounding observation data(i.e.,wind speed,wind direction,temperature,and air pressure),and the other test(LGDA)assimilated both conventional observations and pseudo-relative humidity observations derived from lightning data.The results of assimilated test were compared with those of the test without data assimilation(NoDA).Neither the analysis fields of CONV nor NoDA were able to simulate the echo structure of a strong convective system.Since LGDA increased the adjustment of the humidity field,its analysis field had a large increase in hydrometeor at the location where lightning strikes and the distribution of relative humidity and reflectivity was closest to the China Global Atmosphere Reanalysis data and radar reflectivity observations.The predictive precipitation shows that the spatial coverage of the rainstorm belt(6-h accumulated precipitation≥50 mm),as well as the location and amount of heavy precipitation center(6-h accumulated precipitation≥200 mm),have been well predicted by LGDA,demonstrating the positive impact of lightning DA on this extremely heavy rainfall event,especially the precipitation forecast for the first three hours.

外文关键词：

lightning data assimilationextremely heavy rainfall in Henanthree-dimensional variational assimilation

作者：

庞盈、胡俊俊、陈生、陆高鹏、吴翀、韦春霞、黄朝盈

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作者单位：

珠澳气象创新与应用研究中心,广东珠海 519000

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院寒旱区陆面过程与气候变化重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730000

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院那曲高寒气候环境观测研究站,西藏那曲 852000

中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院甘肃省遥感重点实验室,甘肃兰州 730000

中国科学技术大学地球与空间科学学院,安徽合肥 230026

中国气象科学研究院,北京 100081

广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西南宁 530022

东莞市气象局, 广东东莞 523086

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关键词：

闪电资料同化河南特大暴雨三维变分同化

基金：

国家重点研发计划国家自然科学基金国家自然科学基金广州市科技局项目广西壮族自治区重点研发计划广西壮族自治区重点研发计划宁波市公益性科技计划

项目编号：

2017YFC15015014187518242394122201904010162桂科AB22035016桂科AB220801042023S065

出版年：

2024

DOI：

10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2024.014

热带气象学报

中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所

热带气象学报

CSTPCD北大核心

影响因子：0.768

ISSN：1004-4965

年,卷(期)：2024.40(1)

参考文献量25