Definition of Extremely Rapid Intensification of Tropical Cyclones over the South China Sea for Operational Forecasting
The definition of extremely rapid intensification(ERI)of tropical cyclones(TCs)and the statistical characteristics of TCs that experienced ERI(ERI TCs)over the South China Sea(SCS)were studied using the best track dataset from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute of China Meteorological Administration for TCs during 1981-2022.ERI was defined as intensity increases of at least 10 m·s-1·(6 h)-1,13 m·s-1·(12 h)-1,and 20 m·s-1·(24 h)-1 over the SCS and 10 m·s-1·(6 h)-1,20 m·s-1·(12 h)-1,and 30 m·s-1·(24 h)-1 over the western North Pacific(WNP),which corresponds to the 98th percentile of maximum intensity change for all TCs.Compared with conventional methods,the proposed ERI definition better describes the extremity of rapidly intensifying TCs and the intensity development difference between TCs over the WNP and the SCS.This makes it more useful for TC operational forecasting.Only 12%of TCs over the WNP and 4%of TCs over the SCS underwent ERI,and they were mainly located over the region bounded by 135～145 (°E),15～20 (°N) and the northern SCS near 20 (°N).72%of ERI TCs over the SCS made landfall in China,mostly in Hainan and Guangdong provinces,and 69%of these landing TCs occurred after 2000.ERI TCs over the SCS exhibited characteristics of being close to land,with short landing time and strong landing intensity,which significantly increased the difficulty of TC forecasting and disaster mitigation.
tropical cycloneextremely rapid intensificationdefinitionSouth China Sea
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