Currently,most social science research focuses on the past and present,with very little research on the future.At the same time,the focus of research is often on describing and explaining functions,and predictions are also rare.With the assistance of artificial intelligence technologies such as large models,the era of artificial general intelligence may quickly arrive.The world may enter a state of intelligent weightlessness.There are mainly two types of research on the future,namely literary imagination and philosophical speculation.These two categories are extremely important,but they are far from enough.Therefore,it is crucial to consider how to introduce empirical methods into future research.Quantifying the future means using a quantitative approach to measure the future.Regarding specific methods for quantifying the future,we can at least make breakthroughs in both experimental methods and structural estimation.Quantitative future research topics can be reflected in the response to artificial general intelligence.After the arrival of artificial general intelligence,a high-risk society seems inevitable.Effective speed regulation is an ideal solution,while quantifying the future can be seen as an operational version of effective speed regulation.Ultimately,people may achieve a predictive science that is helpful for decision-making in this relatively precise grasp of the future.
关键词
量化未来/大模型/通用人工智能预测科学
Key words
quantifying the future/large model/artificial general intelligence/predictive science
维普
万方数据